Saudi Arabia will account for 21.51 percent of the Middle East oil demand by 2014, while providing a dominant 39.35 percent of supply, the latest Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report forecast published by CompaniesandMarkets.com said on Friday. It said the regional oil use of 8.11 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 11.38 million b/d in 2009. “It should average 11.66 million b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 12.68 million b/d by 2014,” the report suggested. Regional oil production is set to rise to 27.19 million b/d by 2014 from 22.88 million b/d in 2001 and an estimated 24.83 million b/d in 2009. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was exporting an average 14.77 million b/d. The total had eased to an estimated 13.44 million b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 14.51 million b/d by 2014. Iraq has the greatest production growth potential, followed by Qatar. In terms of natural gas, the Middle East consumed an estimated 404.6bcm in 2009, with demand of 542.1bcm targeted for 2014, representing 34.0 percent growth. Estimated production of 411.9bcm in 2009 should reach 655.4bcm in 2014 (+59.1 percent), which implies net exports rising to 113.0bcm by the end of the period. In 2009 Saudi Arabia consumed an estimated 20.07 percent of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 19.71 percent by 2014. It contributed an estimated 21.58 percent to 2009 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 23.19 percent of supply. For 2009 as a whole, the report assumed an average OPEC basket price of $60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5 percent decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, the report forecast a significant oil price recovery to $83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to $85.00 in 2011 and to $90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond. The report forecast premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average $97.00 this year, up from $70.22/bbl in 2009. The report assumed an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of $97.58/bbl, compared with $70.63 in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of $97.40/bbl, compared with $70.50 in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at $81.58/bbl compares with $59.07 in 2009. The report further said oil demand in the Kingdom will rise from an estimated 2.36 million b/d in 2008 to 2.73 million b/d in 2014, representing 3.0 percent annual growth, beyond 2009. Saudi Arabian real GDP grew by 0.1 percent in 2009, compared with 5.7 percent growth in 2008, it added. Saudi Aramco's oil and liquids production is forecast to rise from an estimated 9.92 million b/d in 2009 to 10.70 million b/d by 2014. Gas production should reach 107bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 81bcm in 2009, it noted. Between 2009 and 2019, the report forecast an increase in Saudi Arabian oil production of 22.0 percent, with volumes rising steadily to 12.10 million b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption is set to increase by 34.3 percent, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0 percent a year towards the end of the period and the country using 3.16 million b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 81bcm to 117bcm by the end of the period. With 2009-2019 demand growth of 43.9 percent, this provides a balanced market throughout the period.
