MALAYSIAN Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is under intense pressure from his own ranks and the opposition trying to seize power through defections, but he may yet pull off a Houdini-like escape. The threat of ruling party lawmakers switching camps and dragging down the government following a poor showing in elections in March is heightening Malaysia's political risk and unsettling investors. “It's a slippery slope for anyone,” said James Chin, professor of politics at Monash University in Malaysia. “The defections are not inevitable. A lot depends on how strong Abdullah will be in coming months and how fast he moved to consolidate his party.” Abdullah, who has rejected calls to quit over his coalition's dismal performance in election, has been fighting to defuse the revolt among lawmakers. Analysts say the lawmakers could still be coaxed to stay despite the carrots dangled by former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim who is leading the opposition effort for a change in government. Debate has also emerged over whether mass defections are constitutionally permissible, strengthening Abdullah's hand. The opposition Pakatan Rakyat - a loose alliance of Islamists, a Chinese-based party and Anwar's multi-racial group - won a record 82 seats in the 222-seat lower house of parliament in the general elections. It needs just 30 seats to win a simple majority and form the government. Anwar, who has yet to return to parliament after being barred from contesting the polls, says he has wooed enough possible defectors to win power but wants a more comfortable margin, which he insists could come by September. “You can never underestimate Anwar but things are very, very uncertain now,” one Western diplomat said. While the uncertainty has not impacted resource-rich Malaysia's economy, buoyed by high oil and commodities prices, it will have long-term implications, CLSA analyst Tony Nafte said. Over the past week, MPs from the politically key eastern state of Sabah have made veiled threats that they would break away from the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition if Abdullah failed to increase oil revenues and offer more political representation to the resource-rich eastern state. Abdullah has been busy meeting lawmakers behind closed doors, ahead of a party meeting in December that could decide his fate as leader. Last week he turned up in parliament during a late-night sitting in a rare gesture seen as keeping an eye on his MPs. He is preparing a second trip to Sabah in two months, after having met senior politicians to hear their grouses, a move that may have prevented possible defections till August, the deadline set by one Sabah leader for the government to meet their demands. “The Sabah MPs are waiting to see who can hold the ground in a more stable way,” said Rita Sim, deputy head of a think tank linked to the Malaysian Chinese Association, a member of ruling group, adding Sabahans have a history of party-hopping. Abdullah's United Malays National Organization (UMNO), backbone of the 14-party Barisan Nasional that has ruled since independence from Britain in 1957, holds 79 of the 140 seats it won. Nine of the Barisan parties are from Sabah and Sarawak. MPs from these states, who form nearly 24 percent of the parliament, want more cabinet positions and are eyeing a deputy premier post. “The people of Sabah have been taken for granted because we are laidback, easy-going people,” said Bernard Dompok, a minister in Abdullah's cabinet, adding defections were a “very real” threat. If Anwar wins power, he has vowed to quadruple oil royalties for the crude-producing Sabah, Sarawak and Terengganu states. But Abdullah's coalition could still turn the tables on his plans by blocking the proposal in the upper house of parliament where it enjoys a comfortable majority. Ultimately the more time Abdullah has, the greater his chances of heading off defections, an analyst said. “The more time Badawi has, the more time he can fight and the more opportunity to calm things down in Sabah and Sarawak,” said University Malaya law expert Azmi Sharom. – Reuters __
