British publishing and events group United Business Media (UBM) beat expectations with a 3 percent drop in 2009 earnings and said it was encouraged by a fall of just 2 percent in bookings for its top trade fairs. UBM, which like its peers has suffered from a clampdown on corporate travel budgets, said the outlook for underlying performance in 2010 was stable. Its shares rose almost 12 percent in early trading, the biggest gainers in European media. “There's been a general concern there would be a very big reduction,” Chief Executive David Levin said of UBM's top 20 shows, which include the Hong Kong Jewellery and Gem Fair. “We're very pleased the forward outlook for those top 20 is only down about 1.5 percent,” he told Reuters. UBM shares had gained just 7 percent in the last year, despite a huge rally in wider markets, as investors moved into earlier-cycle media stocks such as broadcasters and newspapers likely to benefit faster from economic recovery. Informa said this week bookings for its exhibitions and large events were slightly up while Reed Elsevier said last month exhibitors remained cautious and were committing later. UBM's 2009 revenue fell 4 percent, missing analysts' forecasts. Revenue from events, which bring in half of group profits, fell 2 percent, but UBM's biennial trade shows – those that occur every two years – were up 55 percent on 2007. “Although these do not run in 2010, we believe this is positive for sentiment and demonstrates the quality of the Asian events portfolio, which we rate highly,” analysts at brokerage Numis wrote in a note. UBM also announced the acquisition of 70 percent of Chinese sign exhibition Sign China for $10.7 million in cash, with a further performance-related consideration of up to $3.9 million. A third of UBM's events business is now in Asia and China alone contributes 20 percent to overall group profits. Levin said UBM's acquisitions team was currently “very active” and that target areas were exhibitions that fit with the company's portfolio, and additions to its news distribution, targeting and monitoring business, which includes PR Newswire. “There are a number of private owners who have weathered the recession and adjusted their expectations, so there are discussions afoot,” he said. “The trend is positive.” Survivor bias Adjusted 2009 earnings per share were 55.1 pence, easily beating the Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S StarMine SmartEstimate of 50.18 pence, while revenue of 847.6 million pounds ($1.27 billion) missed the StarMine estimate of 861.8 million pounds. StarMine SmartEstimates give more weighting to analysts with better track records of correct predictions. UBM also said it would pay a second interim dividend, unchanged at 18.2 pence, bringing the full-year dividend to 24.2 pence, a 2 percent increase over 2009. The company also said it had resolved a decade-long tax dispute with UK authorities over the sale of its regional newspapers business in 1998.
