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Hoping for a surprise
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 15 - 05 - 2008

FOR Democrat Hillary Clinton, it is hard to think about giving up her presidential run when she is still winning state contests.
Given little hope of capturing the Democratic presidential nomination over rival Barack Obama, still Clinton fights on.
She captured West Virginia on Tuesday and is expected to win Kentucky on May 20.
What is her motivation? Why keep campaigning if the game is over, since it is next to impossible for her to catch Obama's lead in nominating delegates?
Clinton herself gave the simplest explanation after winning Indiana and losing North Carolina last week, saying she was in the race until a nominee is selected, and that Obama has not locked it up.
Or as the pantsuit-wearing Clinton quoted from a Mother's Day letter to her in West Virginia: “It's not over until the lady in the pantsuit says it is.”
Theories abound all over Washington as to why she is staying in a race that has lasted more than 17 months and left her about $20 million in debt, including $11 million out of the family bank account.
There is the “Clinton-the-fighter” theory: that she and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, have faced daunting odds throughout a long, colorful political career and are loathe to cede the battlefield.
“You can see that they are not quitters and they are people who gut it out,” said Democratic strategist Jennifer Palmieri, who worked in the Clinton White House. Who knows? If Obama was to sustain a damaging blow to his candidacy - Clinton adviser Harold Ickes has warned Obama could face an “October surprise” against the Republicans - Clinton would be there to pick up the pieces.
She has won key swing states like Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania that Democrats will need in the November election against Republican John McCain. And she has done well in small states like West Virginia, a state Republican President George W. Bush won twice.
Then there are the superdelegates, those Democratic Party officials who can vote for the nominee of their choice.
The Clinton campaign hopes superdelegates will see her strength in these states - and Obama's trouble in attracting white working class voters - and decide she is the most electable Democrat to face McCain. Lately, superdelegates have been flocking to Obama.
Clinton's future in the Democratic Party could be at stake.
By staying in she may be enhancing her influence in the Democratic Party, giving her a platform to advocate causes like rebuilding the US health care system.
“What does she have to lose?” said Doug Schoen, a Democratic strategist who was a political adviser to former president Clinton. “It's just a case where she remains a critical voice in the Democratic Party and bolsters her claim for influence going forward.”
Her situation under this scenario is not unlike that of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who kept his Republican campaign alive even after it was clear McCain would win.
Huckabee went on to win six states, exposing McCain's weaknesses with conservative voters, before finally dropping out in March and endorsing McCain.
A leading theory is that Clinton wants to appear so strong in taking second place that it will force Obama to make her his vice presidential running mate.
A USA Today/Gallup poll said 55 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters would like to see an Obama-Clinton ticket.
But many analysts doubt such a move is in the offing, believing Obama would not have much to gain from having her on the ticket.
In the end, it could be simply that Clinton is having trouble letting go.
After such a long campaign, in which she began as the prohibitive favorite, it would be a tough decision to suddenly stop when crowds are still turning out to cheer her on. “I look on her as a thoroughbred horse,” said presidential scholar Stephen Hess. “She has raced one hell of a race and now she needs cooling down.” – Reuters __


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