Afghanistan's Taliban rejected President Hamid Karzai's latest call for peace, despite pressure from a NATO offensive and the capture of its significant commanders. The Kabul government is reaching out to foot soldiers to join a reintegration program in exchange for cash, jobs and land. The reintegration plan, which will be funded by the West and led by the Afghan government, forms part of efforts by Washington and its allies to build a foundation for the start of a gradual US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in July 2011. The US and its allies have so far spoken only of reconciliation with those Taliban who renounce violence, sever ties with Al-Qaeda and accept the Afghan constitution. Foreign donors are funding an Afghan plan to reintegrate rank-and-file Taliban fighters using jobs and cash, an initiative the Taliban have described as a “trick”. The Taliban have repeatedly turned down Karzai's peace proposals, saying foreign troops should leave Afghanistan first, but some tentative “talks about talks” have taken place. US special envoy Richard Holbrooke said a number of fighters and groups were trying to “come in from the cold” as a NATO offensive in Marjah in Afghanistan's most violent province pushes on. He did not say how many. But it is too early to gauge whether the campaign will put enough heat on the Taliban to force a significant number of fighters to consider reintegration. While US Marines have taken several parts of Marjah, the Taliban have been digging in for a fight to the death. Without a stronger military advantage, the West may struggle to achieve its goals. Attempts by Karzai and the West to lure Taliban foot soldiers away from the conflict may fail unless the fighters feel they can't win. And success will depend on whether there is enough cash and how quickly projects kick off. Taliban fighters who may have fled before the offensive could just wait it out, perhaps until US troops start withdrawing, and then try to again rule Marjah, a lucrative poppy cultivation centre which the West says funds the insurgency. There is also the fear factor. Taliban militants who express an interest in reintegration projects risk death. People who have enquired about jobs have been threatened, Western officials say. The arrest of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar should bolster Pakistan's position as it tries to play a leading role in any Afghan peace process. If he is co-opted, Baradar could lose credibility. And even if he is willing to risk that to cut a deal, the Taliban are not one single movement that thinks and acts in unison. Factions could reject his efforts and undermine any progress. The arrest of two Taliban shadow governors and a US missile strike which killed the son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, head of a network which has carried out attacks in Afghanistan, may also make the Taliban uncomfortable. But that may not be enough to force them to consider laying down their arms and negotiating, since they are in a position of strength.
