The arrest in Pakistan of a top Afghan Taliban commander should bolster Pakistan's position as it maneuvers to play a leading role in any Afghan peace process, but probably does not signal a fundamental Pakistani policy shift. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar was the most senior Taliban commander ever arrested in Pakistan. He was captured as US forces spearheaded one of NATO's biggest offensives against the Taliban in Afghanistan. It also came as momentum builds for talks with the Taliban to end war Western commanders say they cannot win militarily. Pakistan has said little about the rare arrest of a top member of a Taliban leadership council the United States says has been operating in Pakistan for years. The army confirmed the arrest in a terse statement on Wednesday, but gave no details, citing security reasons. Some analysts said the Pakistani security establishment realized it must demonstrate cooperation with the United States to stake its claim to a role in any Afghan peace process. “What they want to do is assuage the reservations and fears of the international community and to have a stronger bargaining position with respect to developments in Afghanistan,” said Khadim Hussain of the Aryana Institute think tank. With old rival India forging strong ties with Kabul's US-backed government, Pakistan's nightmare is a hostile India on its eastern border and an unfriendly Afghan government supported by India on its western border. The main question is how the move against Baradar fits in with Pakistan's objectives of securing a friendly government in Kabul and keeping Indian influence at bay. “This could be a gesture to show the international community that Pakistan is capable of dealing with the Taliban. They'd like to take this opportunity to exert their position vis a vis Afghanistan and vis a vis India,” Hussain said. In another sign Pakistan might be doing that, an Afghan official said two Afghan Taliban provincial “shadow governors” had also been arrested in Pakistan this month. But some analysts suggest Pakistan's hand could simply have been forced by US agents who had tracked Baradar down. “I think the Americans would have intercepted him and told Pakistan to arrest him. Then, naturally, the Pakistanis would have had no option,” said Asad Munir, a retired officer of Pakistan's main Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. Whatever the reason for Baradar's arrest, Pakistan's links with the Taliban made it pivotal for peace in Afghanistan and Baradar could be used to approach top Taliban leaders, he said. Pakistan realizes the world would not tolerate its backing of another Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani recently said Pakistan did not want to see the “Talibanisation” of its western neighbor. Baradar's arrest came weeks after an international conference in London where Afghanistan's allies and neighbors' backed a Kabul plan to reach out to the insurgents. “The London conference gives some opening to Pakistan to reach out to the Taliban. On the other hand, you deliver them a blow by arresting someone who has been a master strategist,” said Imtiaz Gul, chairman of the Center for Research and Security Studies think tank. “It's like a pincer approach.”
