Nearly half way through the Afghan winter, unusually warm and dry weather is raising fears of a drought that could cause food shortages, undermine efforts to slash poppy growing and worsen security problems. Snowfall has been far below historical averages across key mountainous parts of Afghanistan, which provide much of the country's water for irrigation when the spring melt starts. “We are worried that if this continues with no changes we will face a very strong drought,” said Abdul Qadeer Qadeer, president of the Afghanistan Meteorological Authority. “Across central Afghanistan, the snow is just 10 to 30 cm (4 to 12 inches) deep, while usually it should be from 30 to around 150 cm,” he told Reuters this week, but added that he did not have the forecasting equipment to predict spring weather. The unseasonable weather has prompted calls from ordinary Afghans for a special Islamic prayer for rain. On the streets of Kabul, people are relieved to be spared the snow and mud they should be trudging through by now but say they worry about relatives in the countryside. Around 80 percent of Afghans rely on farming, many eking out a subsistence living. President Hamid Karzai joked last week with visiting US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack that Afghanistan could do with some of the snow snarling up swathes of the United States. Behind the banter are serious concerns for a country where around one-third of the people are already “food insecure” — forced to live with hunger and fear of starvation — according to the country head of the World Food Program, Stefano Porretti. “We are not worried, but we are concerned,” Porretti told Reuters in an interview, adding he is keeping a close eye on weather data that so far does not show dangerous signs. “My understanding is that planting season is generally February or March, so it is a bit early to make any predictions.” However, if precipitation arrives late and falls as rain rather than snow, it can cause floods and landslides, and flows away much faster than snowmelt, limiting its use for farmers. A poor harvest, especially if combined with lack of food support, would likely make the cash offered by the Taliban to its fighters more tempting, and undermine support for a central government already seen by many as remote and corrupt. Drought also complicates Western-sponsored efforts to stamp out farming of opium poppies, because they require just one-sixth the irrigation needed by a similar sized field of wheat. Afghanistan has long been the producer of about 90 percent of the world's opium, a thick paste from poppy that is processed to make heroin. The area under cultivation fell nearly a quarter last year, in part as abundant rain and high food prices made wheat more attractive. “It really depends on the snowpack, which is pretty meagre right now, and how farmers perceive water availability,” said Lenard Milich, an expert on alternative livelihoods at the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime in Kabul. There are many factors that dissuade farmers from sowing poppy. They face government fines, and the destruction of their crops. Many in the devoutly religious country consider drug production haram, or forbidden. But hunger is a powerful incentive and in south Afghanistan, where most opium is grown and Taliban control often means risks are lower, higher poppy cultivation is already on the cards. Khan Muhammad, a farmer in Nahr Saraj district of southern Helmand province, said he is thinking of switching back to poppies this year because of water shortages. “I am forced to grow poppy again to meet my family's needs,” said Muhammad, who produced opium on 10 hectares but switched to wheat when the government destroyed his crop last year. “Growing wheat does not give me or my family any benefits.”
