Bahrain will account for 0.39 percent of Middle East regional oil demand by 2014, while providing just 0.18 percent of supply, a new report on “Bahrain Oil And Gas Report Q1 2010” said on Friday. The report forecast a decrease in Bahrain oil production of 26.0 percent, with crude volumes peaking in 2012 at 60,000b/d, before falling to 37,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 34.4 percent, with growth at an assumed 3.0 percent per annum toward the end of the period and the country using 57,000 b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to climb towards 15.0bcm by 2014-16, then decline to 12.0bcm by the end of the period. With 2009-2019 demand growth of 68.9 percent, this provides an import requirement rising to 4.9bcm by 2019. Crude and liquids output is now averaging approximately 50,000b/d, with growth potential to a peak of 60,000b/d by 2012, the report further said. Gas output is set to increase slightly from an estimated 13bcm in 2009 to 15bcm by 2014, providing a broadly balanced market. Regional oil use of 8.24 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 11.38 million b/d in 2009. It should average 11.66 million b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 12.68 million b/d by 2014, the report released by companiesandmarkets.com said. Regional oil production was 22.87 million b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 24.79 million b/d in 2009. It is set to rise to 28.65 million b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.63 million b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 13.41 million b/d in 2009, but is forecast to reach 15.96 million b/d by 2014. Iraq has the greatest production growth potential, followed by Qatar. In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 406.5bn cubic meters (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 545.1bcm targeted for 2014, representing 34.1 percent growth. Estimated production of 420.6bcm in 2009 should reach 652.8bcm in 2014 (+55.2 percent), which implies net exports rising to 108bcm by the end of the period. Bahrain's estimated share of gas consumption in 2009 was 2.46 percent, while its share of production is put at 3.09 percent. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.43 percent, with the country accounting for 2.30 percent of supply. For 2009 as a whole, the report assumed an average OPEC basket price of $59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3 percent decline year-on-year (y-o-y). It represented an upgrade from the $55.00/bbl forecast used in the previous quarter. For 2010, “we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to $83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to $85.00/bbl in 2011 and to $90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond,” the report said. For 2009, the report has assumed a global average gasoline price of $67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost $80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7 percent. The gasoil forecast is for an average price of $70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above $94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8 percent y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at $68.45/bbl. This compares with $124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at $52.66/bbl, down 39.7 percent from the previous year's level. Bahrain's real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1 percent in 2009, compared with 6.3 percent growth in 2008. The report forecast Bahrain's average annual growth of 4.2 percent in 2010-2014. Consumption of oil is set to rise slowly with the subdued growth of the economy, reaching a maximum of 49,000b/d by 2014. The state accounts for all domestic oil and gas production, as well as the refining and distribution segment. International oil company involvement is very limited.
