THE deadly cyclone that ripped into Myanmar over the weekend could shake the stranglehold on power of the country's ruling generals - becoming a force for change more powerful than massive pro-democracy demonstrations and international sanctions. Natural disasters by themselves are unlikely to trigger change, but instead tend to help undermine already corrupt or failing systems. Few people think revolution is in the air in Myanmar - not while the victims are still burying their dead, now totaling 22,000 and climbing. But by an unusual accident of timing, the cyclone ripped through the country Saturday, just a week before the May 10 referendum on a proposed constitution that the military hoped would go smoothly in its favor, despite opposition from the country's feisty pro-democracy movement. The vote now gives people a rare and relatively safe way to express their discontent with the country's junta. The higher the death toll climbs - and the less effective the government's relief efforts prove - the bigger the potential for undermining the military's mandate to rule. Already, in a society that is notably superstitious, the bad aura surrounding the tragedy has attached itself to the junta. “The juxtaposition of the cyclone and the voting might cause many in Burma to feel this is an indication that the military should not be in power,” said David Steinberg, a Myanmar expert at Georgetown University, referring to the country by its old name. He said traditional views in some parts of Asia consider rulers as responsible for natural conditions. If disaster struck, the administration could be considered to have lost “mandate of heaven.” The military has long ruled by fear, especially ever since 1988 when thousands were killed when the army quashed massive pro-democracy demonstrations. The lesson was reinforced last year, when new pro-democracy protests led by Buddhist monks were suppressed by force, with at least 31 people killed and thousands arrested. “I have been struck (by) ... how open many in Burma have been in contrasting the regime's rapid and in-force response to the events of last year, and their all-too-typical laggardly and underwhelming response to disasters such as this,” said Sean Turnell, an economist specializing in Myanmar at Australia's Macquarie University. “Responding to natural disasters is precisely the sort of thing ‘real' armies do well elsewhere, but never in Burma,” he commented. While the military and other government authorities kept a low profile in Yangon's storm-battered streets, civilians and Buddhist monks banded together, wielding axes and knives to clear roads of tree trunks and branches torn off by the cyclones 190 kph (120 mph) winds. “Where are all those uniformed people who are always ready to beat civilians?” said one man, who refused to be identified for fear of retribution. “They should come out in full force and help clean up the areas and restore electricity.” Myanmar's people will likely remember who came out to help them in their time of need. “If Buddhist monks have mobilized to provide assistance, as often happens in Asian countries, the contrast in response will further work to undermine whatever credibility the junta has left,” said Ben Wisner, a disaster and urban affairs expert at Oberlin University. The need for a massive relief effort pose a dilemma for the junta: how much assistance to accept from abroad. Allowing any major influx of foreigners could carry risks for the military, injecting unwanted outside influence and giving the aid givers rather than the junta credit for a recovery. However, keeping out international aid would focus blame squarely on the military should it fail to restore peoples' livelihoods. The most extreme change could come within the military itself. The cyclone's aftermath, said Turnell, “may also just present an opportunity for more moderate, rational people in the military to assume greater control.” If the relief effort discredits the current leadership, said Josef Silverstein, a Myanmar expert formerly with Rutgers University, younger officers could take the opportunity to make bid for power. “With the devastating sudden impact of natural disasters, there tends to be a huge anger from the public for the inadequacies of the state to respond to the needs of disaster affected people,” noted Dr. Alpaslan Ozerdem of the Post-war Reconstruction and Development Unit of the University of York. “Consequently the image of the state as a paternal figure - a heavy handed protector - collapses spectacularly,” he said. Cases in recent history where disasters helped blaze a trail for reforms include a 1985 earthquake in Mexico that many believe marked the beginning of the end for the long-ruling PRI party; Nicaragua's 1972 earthquake, which led to the decline of the dictator Somoza; and a 1970 cyclone where Pakistan's inadequate relief efforts contributed to the breakaway of the country's east to form Bangladesh. – AP __
