The economy grew at a 2.8 percent pace last quarter, as the recovery got off to a slower start than first thought. The Commerce Department's reading on gross domestic product released Tuesday wasn't as energetic as the 3.5 percent growth rate for the July-September period estimated just a month ago. The main factors behind the downgrade: consumers didn't spend as much, commercial construction was weaker and the nation's trade deficit was more of a drag on growth. Businesses also trimmed more of their stockpiles, another restraining factor. The new reading on GDP, which measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States - from machinery to manicures - was a tad weaker than the 2.9 percent growth rate economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected. Still, the good news is that the economy finally started to grow again, after a record four straight losing quarters. The bad news is that the rebound, now and in the months ahead, probably will be lethargic. The worst recession since the 1930s is very likely over, but the economy's return to good health will take time, Fed officials and economists say. Growth probably won't be strong enough to quickly drive down the nation's unemployment rate, currently at 10.2 percent. It's only the second time in the post-World War II period that unemployment has topped 10 percent. Some economists think economic growth will slow to around a 2.5 percent pace in the current quarter, although others say it could clock in at about 3 percent if holiday sales are better than expected. Most say they think the economy will weaken again next year, with growth at a pace of around 1 percent as the impact of the $787 billion stimulus package fades and consumers keep tightening their belts under the strain of high unemployment and hard-to-get credit. The revised figures showed exports of goods and services increased 17.0 percent in the third quarter, but imports grew at a faster pace of 20.8 percent, a factor that hurts GDP. Other segments of the economy remained weak, with business investment down 4.1 percent. But the housing sector emerged from its slump, with residential fixed investment jumping 19.5 percent, in contrast to a plunge of 23.3 percent in the second quarter. The report also showed corporate profits up $130.0 billion in the third quarter. Augustine Faucher at Moody's Economy.com said this was a jump of 10.6 percent at an annualized rate, and added, “this bodes well for near-term hiring and investment.”
