THE Pakistani army is preparing an offensive on the Pakistani Taleban in their stronghold of South Waziristan near the Afghan border. The United States sees a concerted push by Pakistan to eliminate Taleban and Al-Qaeda sanctuaries in its territory as key to turning around a faltering US-led war in Afghanistan. Here are some questions and answers about the offensive. Who is the military targeting? Several militant factions are based in lawless ethnic Pashtun tribal areas in the northwest, along the Afghan border. The groups include the Pakistani Taleban, based in South Waziristan, and other factions that concentrate on their battle to expel US-led foreign forces from Afghanistan. Foreign fighters, including an estimated 1,000 Uzbeks, most of whom are with the Pakistani Taleban, as well as Arab Al-Qaeda fighters and militants from Pakistan's Punjab province are scattered through the region. For now, despite US pressure for action against the Afghan Taleban, the army is focusing on the Pakistani Taleban, who pose the greatest threat to Pakistan. How many militants, soldiers? Two divisions, or up to 28,000 soldiers, are in place, which the military says is a sufficient number to take on an estimated 10,000 hardcore militants in rugged South Waziristan. The region is crisscrossed by jagged mountains laced by ravines of which the military has little knowledge. Standard counter-insurgency doctrine suggests a soldier to insurgent ratio of up to 10:1 is needed. Pakistan had earlier cited shortages of helicopters, armored vehicles and precision weapons in putting off the assault. But US defense officials said this week Pakistan had mobilized enough forces and equipment to launch the offensive. US officials acknowledge Pakistan needs more armored vehicles and night-vision devises and one said the Pentagon was trying to free up helicopters and other equipment. What tactics? The army has been trained to take on forces from old rival India in conventional battle and analysts say its counter-insurgency capabilities are weak. The military rejects that. Nevertheless, the army has traditionally relied on air strikes and long-range artillery, rather than small foot patrols that counter-insurgency experts say are essential to protect and win over the population and glean intelligence. The army's use of heavy fire power has in the past displaced large numbers of civilians while the militants and their leaders have often melted away to reappear later. The United States believes the Pakistanis will have to “clear and hold” territory to crush the militants loyal to the late Pakistani Taleban leader Baitullah Mehsud. Many members of the South Waziristan tribes sympathize with the militants and the military will be at pains to avoid an uprising. The army sent troops in to South Waziristan in 2004 but they met surprisingly fierce opposition and suffered heavy casualties. Authorities later agreed to a peace deal. When might the offensive begin? The military says its operation in South Waziristan has already begun. For months, the military has been launching air and artillery strikes, while moving troops, blockading the region and trying to split off factions. The military has declined to say when ground troops will be sent in. Snow is likely by late November, but some analysts argue snow will be more of a problem for the militants, who use high mountain trails that will become impassable, than for the military which has some cold-weather warfare capability and aircraft for transport. What implications for Afghanistan? In the short-term, an assault on the Pakistani Taleban will have little impact on Afghan violence. In the longer term, if the assault is successful, the United States will press Pakistan to turn its attention to Afghan Taleban factions in South Waziristan and neighboring North Waziristan. It remains to be seen if Pakistan can be convinced to act with full force against the groups it sees as useful to counter the influence of old rival India in Afghanistan, especially if the United States declines to send more troops to Afghanistan and is seen to be losing heart for the Afghan war and pushing for talks with the Taleban.
