Mahmoud Ahmadinejad began his second term as Iran's president on Wednesday weakened by the turmoil since his disputed re-election in June and under fire from reformists, moderates and even some of his hardline allies. Western leaders, already upset by Ahmadinejad's anti-Israel rhetoric, Holocaust denial and uncompromising nuclear line, refused to congratulate the president on his inauguration, although their counterparts in Japan and Turkey did so. Snubbing the 53-year-old president might play into his hands, argued Alireza Nader, an analyst. “Isolating Ahmadinejad internationally may strengthen his appeal among his hardline supporters,” he said. “As a politician, Ahmadinejad thrives on confrontation, especially on foreign policy issues such as the nuclear program.” The West suspects Iran is seeking the capacity to make nuclear bombs, not just fuel for power plants as Tehran insists. But decisions on nuclear policy, or on relations with the United States – which wants Iran to agree by the end of September to enter serious nuclear talks – ultimately lie with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not the president. The immediate challenge for Ahmadinejad will be to shore up his legitimacy at home after an election that provoked the worst internal crisis in the country's 30-year history. “In the eyes of the public he has no credibility, except among his hardcore supporters. He has been losing them as well,” said Muhammad Sahimi, a professor at the University of Southern California. “Even before the election Ahmadinejad had powerful foes, even within the conservative camp.” But he appears to retain the backing of commanders in the formidable Revolutionary Guard, which led a crackdown on street protests after the vote that his rivals say was fraudulent. Ahmadinejad, who has shown a rare streak of independence from the supreme leader, now has two weeks to submit a cabinet list to the conservative-dominated parliament. Lawmakers may cut up rough if he picks ministers only from his inner circle. “He may have increased difficulties in getting his cabinet approved,” said Nader. Rift with Larijani Parliament rejected several of Ahmadinejad's cabinet choices during his first term. Its conservative speaker, Ali Larijani, is no fan of the man who beat him in the 2005 presidential race. “Larijani has shown strong opposition to Ahmadinejad and his policies in the past,” Nader said. “He has also demonstrated some unhappiness with the handling of post-election protests.” Two losing candidates, Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, reject the result that gave Ahmadinejad nearly 63 percent of the vote. They say his government is invalid and spurn as a “show trial” the charges filed against 100 of their jailed followers. Some top Shi'ite clerics have also questioned the election, which officials say was the healthiest in Iran's history. Ahmadinejad's initial choice of his son-in-law, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, as his first vice-president angered hardliners. They also upbraided him for not swiftly obeying Khamenei's order to dismiss Mashaie, accused of being soft on Israel. Ahmadinejad may be able to count on about 70 members of the 290-seat parliament who are former Revolutionary Guard officers, Sahimi said. Reformists and anti-Ahmadinejad independents hold about 70 seats. The remaining 150 or so are swing votes. “Many of them were already angry about his performance, as well as his arrogance,” Sahimi added. Ahmadinejad drew criticism from reformists and conservatives for his first-term economic policies which they said squandered windfall oil money, fuelled inflation and failed to create jobs. The president, who had promised to put oil wealth on the table of all Iran's 70 million people, made frequent provincial tours, distributing loans, money and help for local projects. He blamed inflation, officially running at 15 percent, on a global surge in food and fuel prices that peaked last year. He has shown no hint of revising his unorthodox economic policies. Nader predicted strong resistance to Ahmadinejad's economic agenda from the opposition, the middle and upper classes, the bureaucracy, which is traditionally dominated by “moderate” technocrats, and key figures such as former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who has links to the business community. Ahmadinejad scorns his critics, but several analysts abroad have speculated that he might be removed by the Supreme Leader or impeached by parliament before completing his four
