Qatar oil exports are growing steadily totaling an estimated 15.18 million b/d in 2008 and forecast to reach 16.58 million b/d by 2013, the latest Qatar Oil & Gas Report said on Friday. It forecast that the country will account for just 1.05 percent of Middle Eastern regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 5.83 percent of supply. Regional oil use of 8.24 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 10.86 million b/d in 2008. It should average 11.09 million b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 12.08 million b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 22.87 million b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 25.94 million b/d. It is set to rise to 28.99 million b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.63 million b/d. The total had risen to an estimated 15.18 million b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 16.58 million b/d by 2013. Iraq has the greatest production growth potential, followed by Qatar. As regards natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 386bcm, with demand of 511bn cubic meters (bcm) targeted for 2013, representing 32.3 percent growth. Production of an estimated 407bcm in 2008 should reach 625bcm in 2013 (+53.8 percent), which implies net exports rising to 115bcm by the end of the period. Qatar in 2008 consumed an estimated 5.44 percent of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 4.62 percent by 2013. It contributed an estimated 17.21 percent to 2008 regional gas production and, by 2013, will account for 21.59 percent of supply. In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q1 2009 was an estimated $45.78 per barrel (barrel), down 13 percent from the $52.51 recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. The report forecast an average OPEC basket price of $51.30/barrel, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible $57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, the report assumed an average OPEC basket price of $52.00/barrel (-45 percent y-o-y). The full-year forecast implies Brent crude at $53.73, WTI averaging $54.90/barrel and Urals at $52.66 for 2009. For the whole of 2009, the assumption for gasoline is an average $56.89/barrel, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of $64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1 percent. For gasoil in 2009, the forecast is for an average price of $69.35/barrel, assuming a monthly high of $94.48/barrel in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8 percent fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from $53.75 in February to $96.76/barrel in December, proving an annual level of $71.78/barrel, compared with $124.95/barrel in 2008.
