It would be rash to predict the outcome of the titanic power struggle now taking place in Iran. It will take weeks, if not months, for the full meaning of the dramatic events of recent days to emerge. But one thing is clear. Iran will never be the same again. It is still in the throes of an unfinished revolution. Its image, and the nature of its regime, have both been profoundly changed. The mass campaign of civil disobedience in the streets of Tehran has torn away a veil of prejudice and misinformation about Iran itself, and hence about its regional ambitions. No one can seriously believe that this mature, lively, educated and articulate society, fighting for justice and democracy, wishes to dominate the Middle East and poses a deadly threat to the entire world. Rather than seeking to impose its will on others, it is passionately self-absorbed. To demonize the Islamic Republic is no longer a credible exercise. Israel's hard-line Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been in Europe this week. His familiar message is that the West and the Arabs should confront what he argues is the acute danger from Iran's nuclear program. To force Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions, he wants it to be severely sanctioned, if not indeed bombed into submission. In his view, Palestinian statehood – if he can even bring himself to mention the subject – is a far less important matter that can safely be consigned to a distant horizon. But, with wrong-headed views such as these, Netanyahu will not get much of a sympathetic hearing. It now seems incontrovertible that Iran's elections were seriously flawed, if not actually rigged by the conservative establishment. It strains credibility that the incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad polled 63 percent of the vote, while his main opponent, former prime minister Mir Hussein Moussavi, a mere 34 per cent. The Council of Guardians has itself admitted that, in no fewer than 50 cities, the number of votes cast was greater than the actual number of voters. Out of 40 million ballots cast, some three million could be fraudulent. And this could be only the tip of the iceberg. At any rate, the voters in their millions have rejected the official results. The opposition is calling for the elections to be annulled and a new vote taken. A partial recount will not be enough. But Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has refused to give way and, rather than remaining the arbiter above the fray, has instead reaffirmed his backing for Ahmadinejad. This could turn out to be a profound mistake. By taking sides so blatantly, Khamenei has brought into the open the profound split between conservatives and reformers among Iran's political elite. He has become the very symbol of a divided leadership. Khamenei is, in fact, the main victim of the crisis. His legitimacy has been tarnished. His credentials as a religious scholar have been questioned. By blaming the massive protest movement on a conspiracy by Britain, the US and other Western powers, his political judgement has come to seem decidedly shaky. Above all, he has squandered the popular respect he used to enjoy by sending in the security forces – and the brutal bassij militiamen – to disperse peaceful protesters. One victim of his repression, a 27-year old woman, Neda Salehi Agha-Soltan, shot in the chest and killed last Saturday, has become an iconic figure of the protest movement – the ‘Angel of Freedom.' Educated Iranian women – they constitute over 60 percent of the two million students at Iran's universities – are at the forefront of the protest movement. Even more than men, they wrestle with the task of reconciling their Islamic identity with modern ideas and codes of behaviour. Above all, they are determined to assert their women's rights. A lesser victim of the crisis is President Ahmadinejad himself. If his second presidential mandate is confirmed, it will begin under the most inauspicious circumstances. He has lost the confidence of at least half the country. He will find it difficult to regain respect, or even to govern. It is clear that this ill-dressed, intemperate rabble-rouser does not adequately represent the image many Iranians have of their country. He is not the president they would like to have. Tehran's streets have rung with the cry of ‘Down with the Dictator'! The most powerful man in Iran today may well be the former two-term president, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The crisis could bring him back to the front of the stage. He is the great insider. He had a hand in elevating Khamenei to the post of Supreme Leader following Ayatollah Khomeini's death in 1989. In the election campaign, he opposed Ahmadinejad and backed Moussavi. He is known to want an opening to the West and is probably the man the conservatives most fear, although he is said to be attempting, behind the scenes, to broker a compromise between the rival camps. Whoever emerges on top in Iran in the coming weeks and months will have to grapple with some pressing issues: whether to grasp the outstretched hand of US President Barack Obama; how to counter international demands for reassurance about the nature of Iran's nuclear activities; how to revitalize an economy suffering from high inflation, high unemployment and a highly inefficient public sector; how to satisfy the popular demand, not just for genuinely free elections, but for the freedom to think and express oneself as one pleases, to dress and enjoy oneself free from the constraints of the clerical establishment, and to revel – as all young people long to do – in the miracle of online communications. There are only two capital cities in the Middle East – Tehran and Cairo – where the population is so great that it can make its voice heard simply by pouring into the street. This is what can be termed the ‘crowd effect.' When citizens demonstrate in their millions, no regime, however brutal, dares shoot them down. The loss of legitimacy would be too great. In Tehran, there have been casualties – no one knows exactly how many, but probably no more than a two or three dozen. That has been enough seriously to embarrass the government and force it on the defensive. Iran is re-inventing itself. For the outside world, it is an awesome spectacle, which deserves sympathetic attention. At any rate, it is far too early to pass judgement.
