Answering the call of an adoring public and desperate politicians, a former president seen as “the father of the poor” returns to lead Brazil. The year was 1950 and the man was popular nationalist Getulio Vargas. But it could also be 2014 if, as many political pundits and party colleagues believe, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is planning a comeback four years after his limit of two straight terms ends following elections in October next year. Lula has approval ratings of 80 percent, earning him praise from US President Barack Obama as “the most popular politician in the world,” and he has faced strong calls to change the constitution and run for a third straight term. He has rejected that option, wary of a backlash if he treads the same path as several other leftist Latin American leaders trying to extend their rule, and is instead grooming his chief of staff Dilma Rousseff as the ruling Workers' Party (PT) candidate for 2010. But few believe that the center-left Lula, an energetic 63-year-old who succeeded at his fourth attempt to win the presidency in 2002, is ready to ride into the sunset and devote himself full-time to his grandchildren and his hobby of fishing. Neither Rousseff nor her expected main opponent, Sao Paulo Governor Jose Serra, are seen as having the charisma or electoral Midas touch that Lula has shown. Some believe that after four years of “normal” leadership, voters would welcome Lula back with open arms. “When Lula begins to leave I think there will be a profound feeling of emptiness ... a leader like Lula appears very rarely in the history of a people,” Aloizio Mercadante, the leader of the Workers' Party in the Senate, told Reuters. “With his youth and his success, I see all the conditions for him to come back as president in 2014.” Another PT senator who is close to Lula, Tiao Viana, said there was an “enormous” chance that the president would return. Feared by markets as a dangerous leftist when he was first elected president, Lula followed orthodox economic policies that nurtured a five-year economic boom while social programs helped lift millions of Brazilians out of poverty. He appears to have weathered the economic crisis with only a small dent in his extraordinary approval ratings.While Lula has ruled out running next year, he has left his options open for the following election. “This wouldn't be a third term. This is in the constitution,” he said during a trip last month to Turkey, one of the more than 70 countries he has visited as president. His globetrotting, and his success in giving Brazil much more economic and diplomatic clout, could be a clue that Lula will consider some kind of global diplomatic role after 2010. His active foreign policy has focused on boosting Brazil's role as a developing-world leader and strengthening a “south-south” partnership with African and other developing countries. There has been media speculation that he might take on a roving United Nations role or set up an institute focusing on Africa. Pact between old militants? Many Workers' Party politicians speak of Lula's comeback as a virtual certainty if the centrist Serra, who currently has a handy opinion poll lead over Rousseff, wins in 2010. But they see a more complex situation if Rousseff wins. If her presidency is a success it could be difficult for Lula to displace her, while a disappointing performance by the former militant could reflect badly on Lula's judgment. “Dilma is a very strong candidate. If she wins next year, Lula won't stand in 2014 because she will naturally run again,” said Delcidio Amaral, another Workers' Party senator. Renato Casagrande, a senator for the Brazilian Socialist Party allied to the ruling party, said he believed Lula would only come back if leftist parties push for it. “I'm not sure if he wants to – my guess is no,” he said, adding that Lula would be wary of risking his historical legacy by coming back for a third term. But others believe a deal may have been struck in which Rousseff, whose recent diagnosis of cancer has cast doubt over her candidacy, agrees to step down after one term to make way for Lula's second coming. “Dilma's mandate is a result of the Lula government's success and this is why I don't see any obstacle,” said Mercadante, citing a tight bond between the two going back 30 years to the struggle against Brazil's military dictatorship.
