Belarus has been Moscow's staunchest ally for nearly two decades, but the Kremlin's efforts to reclaim a dominant role in the former Soviet space have led to hard feelings between the two old comrades – with a ban on Belarusian dairy products the latest irritant in ties. Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko recently accused Russia of trying to take over his nation's industries and destroy its sovereignty. He warned that a long-discussed merger of Russia and Belarus would create “another Chechnya” – suggesting that Belarus would use military force to defend its independence. Russia, meanwhile, retaliated over the weekend with a ban on imports of Belarus milk and dairy products, a heavy blow to the country's agricultural sector, which employs one out of 10 Belarusians. The Minsk-Moscow conflict follows Russia's war with Georgia last August and bitter disputes with Ukraine and other ex-Soviet nations. But unlike other leaders of ex-Soviet states who have found themselves at odds with the Kremlin, Lukashenko will find it hard to win major Western support. The 54-year old former communal farm director has led Belarus, with a population of 10 million, with an iron hand since 1994, stifling dissent and free media and cementing his rule through a series of elections that the West called fraudulent. While Lukashenko has recently released political prisoners and allowed a few opposition candidates to run for office, his overtures to the West seemed motivated by friction with Moscow and Belarus' need for Western trade, aid and investment to prop up its Soviet-style economy. “Lukashenko wants the West to pay for his liberalization moves with loans and investment,” said Andrei Lyakhovich, a Minsk-based political analyst. Moscow has long been Lukashenko's main ally and sponsor, shielding him from Western criticism and providing loans, cheap energy and a huge market for Belarusian agricultural and industrial products. In 1996, Russia and Belarus signed a union agreement and pledged to move toward a merger into a single state. Lukashenko apparently hoped to become the leader of the new unified country. But his relations with the Kremlin gradually eroded following the 2000 election of Vladimir Putin, who made it clear Moscow would be the dominant partner in any union. Lukashenko has criticized Russia's union proposals, saying they would reduce Belarus to a Russian province. He blocked plans to make the Russian ruble the two nations' common currency, and has resisted Russian attempts to acquire key industrial assets. But the global financial crisis has weakened Lukashenko's hand, quickly draining Belarus' hard currency reserves and forcing the country to turn to Moscow and the global community for help. Russia agreed to lend Belarus $2 billion, but talks on the transfer of the final $500-million installment collapsed in acrimony last month. Russia's Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin blasted Belarus's rigid economy and currency controls as the products of “meaningless policy,” and accused Minsk of having a “parasitic” attitude toward Russia. Lukashenko shot back that Belarus would not “bow down, whine and cry” before Russia. He accused Moscow of making the final $500 million loan payment conditional on Belarus' agreement to follow Moscow's lead and recognize the independence claims of two breakaway provinces of Georgia. Lukashenko's efforts to play the West against Russia have paid off, to some extent. Belarus has received $800 million of a $2.5 billion International Monetary Fund loan and another $125 million from the World Bank. But Belarus depends on steeply-discounted Russian oil and gas to run its industries. Neither would Minsk find it easy to replace the Russian market for its agricultural and industrial exports.
