LEBANON's parliamentary election looks tight, but Hezbollah and its allies have a good chance to win a slim edge over their Western-backed rivals. Many local analysts predict a small swing in that direction in the June 7 vote, but there is no reliable opinion polling. Iran and Syria would certainly applaud such a result, which would be seen as a setback for the United States, four years after the anti-Syrian “March 14” coalition took power in Beirut. Yet the Shiite Hezbollah and Amal factions, which, along with Christian leader Michel Aoun, form the core of the “March 8” alliance, would likely ask their opponents to join another unwieldy national unity government, limiting the chances of any radical shift in Lebanon's political or economic orientation. “It has been clear for some time that Hezbollah has a very strong interest in ensuring a national unity framework,” said Karim Makdissi, who teaches international relations at the American University of Beirut. “It has absolutely no intention of a hostile takeover of the state, so it is in its strategic interest to ensure it has a measure of legitimacy and credibility within official channels.” Hezbollah, the only Lebanese faction to remain armed after the 1975-90 civil war, has involved itself in domestic politics largely to keep the weapons it says it needs to deter Israel. Its vote machine among Shiites, whose eligible voters are just outnumbered by Sunnis, is as formidable as its military one. But it is contesting only 11 of the assembly's 128 seats, most of which are effectively allotted in advance under Lebanon's complex sectarian power-sharing system. Amal may win a bigger number, with overall victory for the bloc dependent on how Aoun and his Christian allies perform. Posturing over unity government “The election swing will be very narrow,” said Shafiq Masri, law professor at the Lebanese University. “So it's not a choice, it's a necessity to come back to a national unity government.” The election antagonists, yoked since July in an uneasy broad-based government, have been posturing on the issue. Saad Al-Hariri, head of the loose anti-Syrian coalition, has declared he would rather go into opposition if his side loses. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah countered that he “won't beg” Hariri and company to join a unity government. Nevertheless, Nasrallah is unlikely to favor an overtly partisan cabinet that Western and some Arab countries might cold-shoulder, as they have the Palestinian government led by Hamas, which lies with Hezbollah on the US terrorist list. “The (Hezbollah-led) opposition cannot deal with the outside world if it insists on ruling alone,” Masri said. A detente in Syrian-Saudi ties has already defused tensions in Lebanon in recent months. Continued regional calm as US President Barack Obama explores dialogue with Iran and Syria could allow expediency to triumph over confrontation in Lebanon. “We are seeing some politicians maneuvering for a possible March 8 victory and an anticipated alliance with President Michel Suleiman,” said Faysal Itani, an analyst at London-based Exclusive Analysis, a company which assesses political risk. He named pro-Syrian Amal leader Nabih Berri, who is expected to remain parliament speaker, Walid Jumblatt, an agile Druze politician now allied with Hariri, and independent power-broker Michel Murr as those likeliest to gravitate towards Suleiman. A political source close to Amal dismissed the idea that Berri would distance himself from Hezbollah as absurd. “In case of a Hezbollah victory, the president is going to emerge as the new focus of Western attention and connection with Lebanon,” Itani predicted. He saw Suleiman as lynchpin of a bloc that has “good relations with Syria, growing security relations with the West and a civil relationship with Hezbollah”. Fury at Syria losing relevance? Hariri's candidates may find less potency in the anti-Syrian rallying cry that helped them win the 2005 election. The vote took place soon after Syrian troops quit Lebanon amid an outcry over the killing of Saad's statesman father, Rafiq Al-Hariri. Syria is no longer shunned by the West and won some approval in the past year by forging diplomatic ties with Lebanon for the first time since the two countries gained independence. While few expect Damascus to re-implant a military presence in Lebanon, an election win for its allies would reinforce its political – and perhaps security – influence in its neighbor. This could spell difficulties ahead for the international tribunal set up to try Hariri's killers. Last month the court ordered the release of four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals held for nearly four years, citing lack of evidence to indict them. The likeliest election outcome may be a messy compromise, heralding a return to traditional Lebanese politics that might ensure temporary stability but defer any serious reform. “They have tried to take on the radical elements, including Hezbollah, and they have lost,” Makdissi said of Hariri's bloc. “The political class is ready to settle back into their hibernation of making money and milking the state of all its resources, so services and social issues continue to suffer.” The wild card, Makdissi argued, is Aoun, the former scourge of Syria now allied with Hezbollah. The ex-general has decried the Hariri family's role in incurring Lebanon's huge public debt in the 1990s and has demanded an end to widespread corruption. “If he is in the government, there will be recriminations,” Makdissi said. “If challenged, he may bring up issues that need to be brought up – in a very spiky, confrontational way.”
