THE Obama administration is struggling to confront a central reality of the Afghanistan war it inherited: more troops, more aid and a retooled strategy alone are not enough. It also needs to energize the effort with new ideas, and to do it before the American public's patience runs out. It is a grim given that US casualties are likely to increase in the months ahead as additional soldiers and Marines arrive to take on the Taleban in their southern strongholds. Already some prominent members of Congress, including from Obama's own party, are questioning whether Afghanistan is a lost cause. That worry may explain, in part, Monday's decision to sack Gen. David McKiernan as the top US commander in Afghanistan and replace him with an officer known for innovative action, Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said it was time for “new thinking and new approaches.” Yet it seems unlikely the switching of commanders portends a new US war strategy. Obama announced a revised plan just two months ago. Instead the administration is hoping that a military command shake-up will lead to a more effective implementation of the existing strategy, which is aimed at defeating Al-Qaeda terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan and preventing their return to either country. William Fallon, the retired Navy admiral who was responsible for US military operations in Afghanistan and the broader Middle East in 2007-08, is optimistic that new leadership will make a difference. “I have the highest confidence in his judgment,” Fallon said, speaking of McChrystal. “He gets it.” The change at the top in Afghanistan will not mean new marching orders for arriving Marines, said Lt. Gen. Dennis J. Hejlik, a US-based Marine commander. However, Hejlik, too, suggested that McChrystal will do things differently. “He really does understand that you're not going to win the war by killing all the enemy. That's just not going to work,” he said. McKiernan recently described the war as “stalemated, at best” in the southern part of Afghanistan, where the Taleban are strongest. For months he has called for an increase in US forces, but during the Bush administration his requests went unmet as Iraq dominated the White House's focus. Obama entered the White House promising to make Afghanistan and Pakistan the higher priority, arguing that stopping Al-Qaeda from launching new attacks was of greater strategic importance than the task in Iraq. He also said he would “not blindly stay the course” in Afghanistan and would regularly review his approach. Since then the situation, militarily and politically, arguably has deteriorated. The boldness of the insurgency was underscored Tuesday. Eleven Taleban suicide bombers struck government buildings in a daylong assault in the eastern city of Khost. The assault led to running gunbattles with US and Afghan forces that killed 20 people and wounded three Americans. At the heart of Obama's approach to the war is his view, shared by senior commanders, that military power alone will not lead to success, and stability in Afghanistan is not possible without stability in neighboring, nuclear-armed Pakistan, where the radical Taleban movement has been on the rise. That means Obama will look to McChrystal to find more effective ways of linking military action with an accelerated effort to build workable Afghan government ministries, to expand and improve Afghan security forces, to promote Afghan reconciliation with more moderate elements of the Taleban, and to improve the US-led coalition's ability to overcome remarkably effective propaganda efforts by the Taleban and Al-Qaeda. It also means that turning around the war in Afghanistan will require changes beyond Obama's control, perhaps most importantly a more effective Pakistani government response to the Taleban insurgency in Pakistan. Two months after announcing his new strategy, Obama has little to show for it, although the extra 21,000 troops he approved as reinforcements are only now beginning to arrive and there is the prospect of a further restructuring of the US-NATO command in Afghanistan. Also, the new US ambassador in Kabul, retired Army Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, just arrived in the capital last week. The outlook is not bright. At a hearing Tuesday, Republican Sen. James Risch painted a grim picture, saying he was stunned by a lack of progress in Afghanistan, which he called a “black hole” with no bottom. “It is just breathtaking, the amount of money, the American lives we've spent there, and you have a government that has control maybe to the outskirts of the capital,” Risch said.
