stage elections of the world's largest democracy ends today. Since exit polls are banned and results not expected before May 16, it's difficult to say which party will win or, to be more precise, form the government. Analysts have ruled out that India's two main parties – Congress and BJP – can win the majority. Alliances with smaller regional parties are more likely the answer. But which party can forge the right alliance needed to take power will remain the question until results are out. Analysts are divided, while some project BJP to win the others think Congress will pull through. BJP gaining momentum After trailing for weeks, India's Hindu nationalist opposition may now be gaining momentum against a fumbling ruling Congress party-led coalition thanks to some savvy alliance building. The Bharatiya Janata Party-led (BJP) alliance, which ruled India from 1998 to 2004 on a pro-business platform, was plagued by internal dissension, withdrawals and poor campaigning just a month ago, and polls gave Congress an advantage. But on the eve of the last stage of the staggered month-long election, the BJP has won over more allies, showcasing them at a large rally in northern India last Sunday, in marked contrast with the squabbling inside the Congress-led coalition (UPA). After initial organizational hiccups, the BJP has managed to unite and has boosted its campaign firepower with a media blitz. Potential allies have taken heart from internal surveys that show the party doing better than expected, BJP insiders say. The two main national parties, Congress and the BJP, only won around a quarter of the votes each in the last 2004 general election, so their ability to secure coalitions with regional and caste-based parties will be key to forming a government. “The indications on the ground is that it will be a hung parliament,” said BJP top election strategist Sudheendra Kulkarni. “So everything will depend on the party's ability to maintain alliances – and the UPA is in complete disarray.” In the last few weeks, smaller parties – many motivated by political expediency – have joined the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with the perception the Hindu nationalist party has a better chance of forming a government. The regional Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) party decided to join the NDA in the swing state of Andhra Pradesh. “We lost one ally but got five,” BJP prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani told Sunday's rally, referring to a flurry of alliance switching. With no exit polls allowed during the election, predicting the result is notoriously difficult. Many investors would be happy to see a stable coalition of either main national party. But a BJP victory may see a market rally given its record on economic reforms such as privatisation. Reform stagnated under the Congress-led government. Indeed, Indian shares rose 4.1 percent on Tuesday afternoon on speculation the NDA would form the next government, traders said. Bookies bet on Congress If India's faceless bookmakers are any guide, the ruling Congress party will probably scrape through the current election with Manmohan Singh the firm favourite to retain the prime ministership. Wednesday is the final day of a month-long election involving more than 700 million voters. But with no single party expected to win an outright majority, the election has become a game of securing the highest number of allies to boost parliamentary numbers. Betting is illegal in India. But in a maze of back alleys in the old quarter of Delhi, bookies, between taking bets on all-time favorite cricket, are working the phones and taking bets on the next government ahead of the actual vote count on Saturday. “There is no other business at the moment. People are either betting on cricket (Indian Premier League) or on who will form government,” said a gold trader sitting on the floor of his tiny shop in front of a bank of phones. Congress is favored to take 140 seats in the 543-member parliament, the highest among all the parties, but still far short of the half-way mark of 272 required to rule. It is banking on regional allies and possible support from communists to shore up the numbers. The main opposition Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to win 125-130 seats, but the odds are improving that they will win more. Singh is the evens favorite to take the prime ministership, while BJP leader Lal Krishna Advani is considered a 3-1 chance to win the top job. “There is no other candidate,” said another trader who said he was in touch with people who were involved in the betting business.
