ELECTION time is frenzy time. Sound-bites and harangue further whip up this frenzy. Politicians do not allow people to pause and ponder over basic realities. The truth gets blurred by hyperbole. With this in mind, two important developments in India in the middle of the election process surprised me a lot. Just before the third phase of polling, the Indian media dropped a bombshell announcing that the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) “acting at the behest of the ruling Congress party” had let off one of the main suspects in the Bofors payoff scam, Italian businessman Ottavio Quattrocchi, and sought two month's time to decide on the course of further action. The other development was the Supreme Court decision, three days before the third phase of polling, ordering a probe into Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi's role in the 2002 communal riots in his state. This decision was followed by another order, appointing fast track courts to try these cases under the supervision of the Special Investigation Team. These two issues gave fodder to the politicians. Public memory is short, but shrewd politicians don't suffer from amnesia. The main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) does remember very well that it was the Bofors case that cost Rajiv Gandhi his government in 1989. They have also not forgotten Narendra Modi's sweeping victory in Gujarat after the riots. The logic says that these two developments are going to benefit the BJP again. Yet surprisingly, everyone is bashing the Congress for its alleged use of power to influence the CBI and the court to let off Quattrocchi and penalize Modi. BJP spokesman Prakash Javadekar went so far as to call CBI as “Congress Bureau of Investigation.” BJP president Rajnath Singh was quoted as saying in the Indian media that the exoneration of Quattrocchi proves Congress leaders' involvement in the multi-million rupees Bofors scam. But when it comes to the court order against Modi, the Hindu party sees it as a Congress conspiracy. The BJP must be thanking its stars for getting readymade issues right in the middle of the election process. This is the reason, I can't digest the criticism against Congress on these two issues. The Congress think tank cannot be so naive as to let the genie of Bofors and Gujarat riots out at this time to spoil the party's chances at the hustings. It makes more sense to think otherwise. Given the timing of these two developments, I would rather swim against the tide by believing that it is the handiwork of anti-Congress elements. Quattrocchi had been removed from the CBI list of wanted fugitives in November 2008. Why did no one raise the issue at that time? Why is everyone talking about it now when the polls are still due in 171 constituencies? In fact, when the issue was raised, even the third phase of polling had not taken place. In November last year, the Election Commission had not announced the polling dates. The dates were announced only in March. So the parties opposed to Congress did not want to rake up the issue ahead of time. Now let's examine the timing and the impact of the Supreme Court order against Modi. Voters in the 26 parliamentary seats in Gujarat went to the polls in the third phase on Thursday (April 30). Just three days before the polls, the Supreme Court order came. The BJP exploited the issue to its advantage. “Will our brother Modi go to jail?” asked the last-minute publicity blitz. And the voters replied with a much better turnout as compared to other places. The turnout was roughly 48 percent in Gujarat, 3 percent higher than the one in 2004. The turnout was higher in urban areas, where Modi has his fan base. The advertisement campaign projecting Modi as a victim of conspiracy seemed to have worked. In all likelihood the case against Modi may end with a whimper. BJP general secretary Arun Jaitley has rightly said that Modi has come out unscathed from 10 investigations, he will remain unharmed even after the fresh one. But the bang with which the case started in the middle of the election has definitely done the damage, not to Modi or BJP but to the Congress party. As far as letting Quattrocchi off the Bofors hook is concerned, it can not be final. The CBI has sought two month's time from the court. When the case reopens in September, a new government will be in place. If the BJP-led NDA comes to power, then it will have all the resources at its disposal to undo the alleged favor given by the Congress leadership to the Italian businessman. So even this logic that Congress wanted to seal the file before its exit from power does not hold good. India is half way through the elections, and the body language of political parties has already changed. The Congress confidence seems to be waning. The BJP's posture appears to be more poised and relaxed. The Left's pre-poll nuisance has subsided. With the Election Commission ban on exit polls, it's good to keep darting in the dark till May 16 when the results will be out.
