SPAIN could do without nuclear power plants the government has vowed to phase out in favour of booming renewable energy, analysts say, but would need more wind parks and gas plants to keep the lights on. Nuclear power is unpopular in Spain, and the government backs renewables in order to cut heavy dependence fuel imports and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Permits for seven of the country's eight nuclear plants are up for renewal in the next two years, or well within the mandate of Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero's Socialist government. The first plant to face the axe will be the 500 megawatt Garona power station in July, but the government has not ruled out extending nuclear reactor's working lives. Antonio de Juan Fernandez of Poyry Engineering Consulting said that burning more gas and ramping up subsidised renewable power would be costly. “Removing nuclear generation from the generation mix will only increase the cost of electricity, which is something that the Government is also against.” Hard to replace Analysts note that although nuclear plants only make up about 8 percent of Spain's generating capacity, they supply 18 percent of its energy because they work day and night. With total generating capacity of 90 gigawatts (90,000 MW) and peak demand of 45 GW, it may look like Spain could easily do without 7.7 GW from its nuclear plants. However, if Spain quickly closed its nuclear plants, had no hydroelectricity due to drought and wind farms were becalmed, total generating capacity could fall to less than 50,000 MW. “That means you have to have absolutely everything else working flat out,” said Ian Cronshaw, head of the energy diversification division at the International Energy Agency, adviser to 28 industrialised countries on energy policy. “It's a worse-case scenario. There'd be some wind, some hydro, fine, but that peak of 45 GW was last year and we have seen Spanish power (demand) grow quickly.” Cronshaw estimated Spain would need to triple its wind generating capacity to replace nuclear electricity, because the wind does not blow all the time. Spain is already the world's third-largest wind power producer. Spain could also build more gas-powered plants and has the advantage of a diversified supply base for gas, he added, but this would mean producing more greenhouse gas. Few plants seen closing Renewables industry sources say they still need time to replace nuclear energy and expect at most two or three nuclear plants to close on age and safety grounds in the coming years. “The lights will not go off at all. Closing two or three nuclear plants would temporarily raise (wholesale) prices by 2-3 euros per megawatt-hour, but they would still be cheaper than in France,” one source said. Wholesale power for next-year delivery, a market benchmark, has traded at around 44 euros ($57.31) per megawatt-hour this week in Spain, compared to 54 in France. Power traders say nuclear power is cheaper than fuel-burning plants, but note market prices have adjusted to two plants going off line for refuelling in recent months. Analysts say that while an economic revival would spur demand, much could still be done to save energy in Spain. Industry Minister Miguel Sebastian noted recently that Spanish energy consumption per head was 20 percent above the European average. “Saving 20 percent would be the equivalent of doubling the number of nuclear power plants. It (saving) seems easier and cheaper to me,” he said.
