INDONESIA's Golkar Party, which did poorly in this month's elections after dominating politics for decades, is still likely to exert influence over the country's pace of reform, investment appeal and growth prospects. Golkar never lost an election during autocratic ex-President Suharto's three decades in power. But the fact it won just 14 percent of the votes in the parliamentary election means it now has limited options other than to seek to join President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's coalition or else risk political oblivion. Golkar leaders will meet on Thursday to decide on their strategy. Analysts expect the horse-trading between the various parties to continue right up to the May 16 deadline for registering candidates for the presidential election in July, which Yudhoyono is tipped to win. Support for Golkar has traditionally come from Suharto-era entrenched business interests and the inefficient bureaucracy, which means it has little interest in cleaning up either area. So if Golkar joins Yudhoyono's coalition, even as a less important partner, it could hamper Yudhoyono's efforts to overhaul the civil service, judiciary and police, much as it did during his first term. Yudhoyono has already indicated that he may not necessarily include Golkar or its leader Jusuf Kalla, who is currently his vice president, in his coalition. “The president and the vice president have to be on the same boat,” Yudhoyono told reporters on Sunday, hinting at his frustration with Kalla's bid to set the agenda in his first term. “The ship's captain is the president and the vice president helps out the captain.” Yudhoyono's chances of pushing ahead with his reform programme are better without Golkar, some analysts said, provided he still has a cohesive coalition with a few small parties. Indonesian financial markets have rallied on the prospect that Yudhoyono, a reform-minded former general, will be able to continue market-friendly policies in Southeast Asia's biggest economy. The rupiah has gained 5 percent on the dollar and stocks are up about 12 percent since the election. However, if Golkar is excluded from Yudhoyono's coalition, it could ally with former President Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI-P to form a powerful opposition block, or even disintegrate amid internal rifts over its leadership and strategy. “Golkar is in deep division,” said political analyst Kevin Evans of Pemilu Asia, which collects data on elections. “The idea of not being in the ministerial Volvos will be a little bit difficult for them to take.” Yudhoyono is favorite Golkar, which held power for 33 out of the last 38 years and is the dominant party in the current government, has clearly been caught by surprise with the further slide in its support. Yudhoyono's Democrat Party, a centrist, secular party, tripled its vote in the April 9 poll to about a fifth of the ballots cast, based on early counts, making it the strongest party in terms of forming a viable coalition. As Suharto's political machine, Golkar usually won more than 70 percent of the vote. That fell to just over 20 percent in 2004, when it was still the biggest party, and to 14 percent now. That puts it in a much weaker position in coalition talks. Some analysts predict it will seek to join the Democrats and field a vice presidential candidate as Yudhoyono's running mate, rather than running against Yudhoyono by fielding its own presidential candidate. Kalla said back in February that he was considering running against Yudhoyono. But the plunge in Golkar's support and his own poor performance in opinion polls now make that look unlikely. A poll released last week by the Indonesian Survey Institute, or LSI, showed that in a three-way presidential race Yudhoyono would win 59.8 percent, Megawati 18.9 percent, and Kalla 7.7 percent. Other potential Golkar candidates for the presidency, including media magnate Surya Paloh and the Sultan of Yogyakarta, also appear to have a negligible chance of beating Yudhoyono.
