PLACED Washington sources report that President Barack Obama is determined to achieve a comprehensive resolution of the main Middle East conflicts in his first term of office. He sees such a broad settlement as vital for American security and as the only way to draw the poison from America's relationship with the Arab and Muslim world. From the very first days of his presidency, he embarked on an ambitious program of regional peace-making in the belief that the status quo was untenable and that there was no time to waste. The next two years are thought to be crucial. The comprehensive settlement Obama is said to envisage would include: • an Israeli-Palestinian final status agreement on the basis of the two-state solution; • Israeli peace agreements with both Syria and Lebanon, involving the return of the Golan to Syria and the Sheba' farms to Lebanon; • a ‘grand bargain' with Iran under which the Islamic Republic would give up any attempt to acquire nuclear weapons in return for guarantees against attack, a lifting of sanctions, a return of frozen assets, a normalization of its relations with the United States and, possibly, its inclusion in a regional security system. Obama is thought to believe that the United States must play the lead role in mediating solutions to these conflicts, with the active support of the European Union. As the conflicts are intimately linked to one another, negotiations must proceed simultaneously on all fronts. Indeed, a striking feature of Obama's diplomacy is that he appears to link the ‘grand bargain' he envisages with Iran to an Arab-Israeli settlement. Washington sources suggest that something like a trade-off is being considered. In exchange for determined American action to defuse the threat to Israel from any future Iranian bomb, Israel must be induced to end its occupation of Palestinian territories and allow the emergence of an independent and viable Palestinian state. Regional diplomacy is quickening. George Mitchell, Obama's special envoy, has completed his third visit to the region. King Abdullah of Jordan, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israel's Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu are all expected in Washington in the coming weeks. Syria's President Bashar Al-Assad – a key figure in any peace settlement – is also hoping for an early meeting with Obama. Several features of the situation suggest that this might be a particularly propitious moment for Obama's ambitious peace-making. His personal popularity and political authority are tremendous assets. Moreover, he has a sympathetic understanding both of Israel's security fears and of Arab and Muslim aspirations. The recent Gaza war aroused such worldwide outrage that it convinced international opinion of the urgent necessity for peace. It also brought home to many Israelis the futility of military solutions to their conflict with the Palestinians. In the US a new pro-peace, pro-Israeli lobby, known as J Street – one year old this week – is already having some success weaning American Jews away from the hawkish pro-Likud views of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). In Israel, Netanyahu's government is fragile and may not last. His hardline foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, under criminal investigation by the police, may be forced out of office, while the coalition itself remains at the mercy of defections from far-right partners. The fragmented nature of Israeli and Palestinian politics may turn out to be to Obama's advantage, since the two sides are evidently too weak to make peace on their own. A settlement of the conflict must be taken out of their hands. No power is better placed to do so than the United States. It is striking that Obama has not only made speeches reaching out to Iran and declaring his commitment to a two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He has also taken practical steps towards his goal. • According to reports from Washington, his Administration has started a campaign to persuade Congress, many of whose members are strongly pro-Israel, that the time for peace has arrived and that difficult decisions will have to be made. • Obama has given his support to the Arab Peace Plan, first launched at the 2002 Arab summit in Beirut. The Plan offers Israel peace and normalization with all 22 members of the Arab League if it withdraws to its 1967 borders and allows the emergence of a Palestinian state. Obama is clearly determined to rally major Arab states behind his peace diplomacy. His Administration is coordinating closely with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Morocco, but also with Syria and leading Gulf States. He understands that wide Arab backing will be required for any settlement. Above all, Washington is giving detailed attention to putting together a ‘security package' for Israel, once it withdraws from the Occupied Territories. The package is expected to include formal US guarantees of Israeli security, promises of additional funding and weaponry, and the creation of an international force, and its deployment on the West Bank over several years, to protect Israel from hostile infiltrations and to train Palestinian security forces. Never in recent decades have American ambitions for a comprehensive Middle East peace been more determined and more purposeful. The opponents of peace, whether Israeli or Arab, will have a tough time standing up to the Obama steam
