Georgia's opposition plans to stage a week of protest rallies from Thursday to try to unseat President Mikheil Saakashvili, but internal bickering and a lack of political direction mean the effort is likely to fail. The resulting frustrations could however boil over into unrest in the streets, analysts said. Georgia's defeat by Russia in a five-day war last year has increased pressure on Saakashvili, already facing criticism over democratic shortcomings and a brash style that has alienated Tbilisi's elite. The opposition rallies hope to emulate the 2003 street protests that ousted the ex-Soviet old guard of Eduard Shevardnadze and swept in pro-Western Saakashvili. Its ranks swollen by defectors, the opposition predicts a turnout of at least 150,000. Analysts are less sure. The opposition lacks strong leadership and critics say it is more interested in arguing over how to seize power than in the slow grind of influencing policy. A protracted stand-off with demonstrators in front of the parliament will test the patience of authorities, who repressed the last big protests in 2007 with rubber bullets and tear gas. “If you say Saakashvili has to go, and he doesn't, what do you do?” said Svante Cornell, research director at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. “Then you need to save face, and clearly there's a danger of tensions resulting in some type of violence.” Critics do not fault Saakashvili's economic record since coming to power, but say efforts to consolidate democracy, judicial independence and media freedom have lagged far behind. The war, when Russia crushed an assault by Georgian forces on breakaway South Ossetia, fuelled a belief among some that the energetic and impulsive president has made too many mistakes. The war effectively cost Georgia's NATO membership ambitions for the foreseeable future. Several allies, including popular former UN ambassador Irakly Alasania, have left Saakashvili's team alleging intolerance and authoritarianism. The president is on his third prime minister since the war but his inner circle is intact. Analysts also say Saakashvili's perceived disregard for the old intelligentsia has also cost him dearly. “They (the intelligentsia) feel offended and lost, with this new ruling class of young, Western-educated guys telling them how the game is played,” said publisher Shorena Shaverdashvili. “Will they get enough?” Thursday marks the 20th anniversary of a crackdown by Soviet troops in the twilight of the Soviet Union against Georgian protesters demanding independence. Fear of unrest has been fed by a broadcast of secret police video of men with alleged opposition links buying weapons and discussing an apparent armed uprising. The opposition denies any such a plan, saying it has been framed. Diplomats say the scandal could keep protest numbers down. They also say the government can still draw on $4.5 billion of post-war international aid to plug the gaps left by fleeing investors and mask the impact of the global crisis. The opposition has struggled to formulate a response to the war, trying to highlight Saakashvili's mistakes without compromising a national consensus that Russia was to blame. “I don't see any serious alternative to Saakashvili within the opposition,” said hairdresser Zhanna Arutuynova. “Right now we need stability, to recover from the war.” Saakashvili has been touring factories and hardscrabble villages talking of investment and stability. “People are worried about the economy and their day-to-day lives, and there is a certain fatigue with this constant political bickering in the capital,” Cornell said. The focus on Saakashvili “will bring to the streets the most ardent opponents of the president,” he said. “But will they get enough? That's the question.” Analysts say that opposition leaders have talked up the necessity of unseating Saakashvili so much that if they fail, they might struggle to control the radical fringe. Another police crackdown would be disastrous for Georgia's image in the West, with US policy towards the region under President Barack Obama still in the making.
