A QUESTIONABLE rape conviction and China's increasing clout in Southeast Asia could add new impetus to Philippine-US relations, but ties remain underpinned by joint operations against Muslim separatists, analysts say. News emerged last week that a Filipina woman had recanted testimony that led to the 2006 rape conviction of a US marine, a case that had led to a surge of anti-US sentiment in the Philippines, a former American colony. Local media speculated the flip-flop came because of a call from President Barack Obama to Philippine counterpart Gloria Macapagal Arroyo earlier this month, their first contact since he was inaugurated. “I don't think it is going to have a major impact on the direction or vibrancy of the bilateral relationship,” said L. Scott Harrison, the head of political risk consultancy Pacific Strategies and Assessments. “I think most US attention is focused on counter-insurgency operations in Mindanao. At the end of the day, what's going on in Mindanao is the only thing that really gets major concern or interest in Washington.” The United States has hundreds of troops, including special forces, based in Mindanao, an ethnic Muslim dominated region in the southern Philippines, to counter separatists who are seeking autonomy in that region. The soldiers are banned from combat under an agreement with Manila but provide training and logistics support to Philippine troops. This relationship, which was launched in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks on the United States, ended a period of frosty ties after the US military was asked to vacate its bases in 1992. “The United States is only interested in Mindanao, that seems to be the lynchpin of their strategy right now and that's a very narrow outlook insofar as we are concerned,” said Philippine military analyst Rex Robles. “We can't get anything much (more) out from it.” Seesaw Ties between Asia's largest Catholic nation and its former colonial ruler have seesawed for decades. The United States is the Philippines' biggest trading partner with bilateral trade at about $17 billion last year. There are about four million people of Filipino descent in the United States, the largest Asian ethnic group there after the Chinese. Over 250,000 Filipinos served alongside the US military during World War 2. But Manila doesn't always toe Washington's line and the United States is often portrayed in local media as a bully. Local nationalists were infuriated when US authorities detained a marine convicted of rape, Lance Corporal Daniel Smith, at its embassy and refused to send him to a local jail. However, the recanting of testimony by Nicole, the pseudonym of the woman who accused Smith, and the possibility of his acquittal on appeal could help end the controversy. Harrison, the political risk consultant, said on the face of it, there seemed to be no link between Obama's telephone call and Nicole's new testimony, although the woman has now left for the United States on a hard-to-get immigrants' visa. He added: “Rightly or wrongly a lot of people are going to believe the two issues are linked. And perception is the ultimate reality, so I don't think you will be able to dispel that. “Some sort of a deal or some quid quo pro could have come up.” The other new wrinkle in the US-Philippines relationship is China, which has been expanding political and economic influence in the region, including in countries which have traditionally leaned toward Washington, such as the Philippines. Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, who has said he will seek the presidency when Arroyo retires next year, has signaled Manila may not be satisfied with the current state of ties with Washington. “We have a mutual defence treaty with the US which we don't have with China and so that balances it out,” he told Reuters earlier this month. But he said there were “attitudinal changes” with Washington. “The mere fact that we are tied and obligated by a mutual defence treaty does not mean that they can rest on their laurels. The policy of the Philippines really is to engage diplomatically with all powers in the area.”
