Saudi Arabia's ethylene capacity will be almost double the level achieved in 2008 by end-2013, leading to strong growth further downstream, a latest petrochemicals industry report for the first quarter of 2009 on Saudi Arabia forecast. “Our projections for petrochemical capacity are based on currently planned projects, but it is possible that some may not come to fruition due to the restriction on ethane feedstock and a possible downturn in the Chinese market at a time of rising Chinese capacities,” the report said. Saudi Arabia is rated as the most attractive country out of the eight surveyed by some margin, with a score of 74.1 points, up 0.4 points since the previous quarter, by BMI in its Middle Eastern Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings Matrix. The Kingdom is placed ahead of Qatar, which is in second place with 61.2 points. The report released has made changes to capacity forecasts for the next five years, bearing in mind the delays to current projects. “We do not believe the proposed Ras Tanura complex, with a 1.5 million tons per annum (tpa) ethylene cracker, will come onstream before 2014,” BMI (Business Monitor International) said in the report. “The commissioning of the Petro Rabigh complex has also been delayed from the fourth quarter of 2008 to second quarter of 2009,” it said. “Nevertheless, ethylene capacity in 2013 is forecast to be almost double that of 2008 levels, at 18.2 million tpa, with Jubail and Yanbu the focus of petrochemicals developments over the medium-term,” the report pointed out, adding “however, this is 1.47 million tpa lower than forecast in the previous quarter as a result of project revisions.” In November 2008, Saudi Aramco and Total indicated that they were delaying the bidding process for the Jubail Refining and Petrochemical complex until February 2009, with contracts awarded in second quarter of 2009. The report said the reason for the move in the deadline was put down to the financial crisis, but the partners insist the complex will still be completed by end-2012. “They claim the delay will allow contractors to present more realistic bids,” it said. Meanwhile, in September 2008, Petro Rabigh announced that technical problems with some units at the new refining and petrochemicals complex meant that completion is moved to first quarter of 2009. As a result, the price of the complex is set to rise by up to $300m million to $10.3 bilion. Costs have been continually revised upwards and are now more than double the original $4.3 billion, the report further said. BMI said in the report that “due to the integrated nature of the megaprojects currently under development, any delay further up the supply chain causes delays in downstream developments.” “Consequently, the delay in Petro Rabigh has led to a delay in the commissioning of polymer plants with capacities of 300,000tpa PE plants and 700,000tpa PP,” it added. By end-2009, polyolefins production capacity should reach 10.78 million tpa before rising over 40 percent to 15.18 million tpa by end-2013. Most of the growth will come from the PE segment. __
