WITH an eye on upcoming polls, the man expected to be Malaysia's next prime minister announced a big budget on Tuesday seen aimedat boosting the economy at a time of rising political uncertainty. Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak set out new spending worth 60 billion ringgit ($16.27 billion) over two years or around 9 percent of the size of the economy, tax incentives and measures to create jobs as well as aid for key industries. That was much more than the 30 billion ringgit many economists expected. The budget came just weeks before Najib, who is also finance minister, is due to assume the premiership and at a time when the National Front coalition that has ruled Malaysia for 51 years is under heavy political pressure from a resurgent opposition. Without a kick from the budget to save jobs, there is a risk Najib, the son of Malaysia's second prime minister, could be the last from the National Front. Politics as much as economics A key message from Tuesday's mini-budget was to show Malaysians the National Front coalition is best equipped to lead the country through an economic crisis that has seen exports plunge 28 percent in January from a year earlier. The government wants to be able to say it saw Malaysia through the 1997-98 Asian crisis and can do so again. Najib's most immediate priority is his United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the main party in the National Front coalition. Najib is to stand unopposed as party president at the UMNO internal polls two weeks from now. While there are no significant critics within party ranks at present, Najib's grip on UMNO will still depend on placating the grassroots, many of whom will be hit by the economic downturn. Najib has built a deeply entrenched grassroots political base through large financial allocations to the ministries he's helmed, especially Defence and Education. Many grassroots members are dependent on UMNO's entrenched system of patronage. The economic stimulus will help them indirectly via stimulating construction activities. A portion of the spending will benefit the country's lower level contractors, allowed to bid for contracts worth up to 500,000 ringgit. Many of these people are rank and file UMNO members. More muted effect But it is still unlikely the spending spree will have as big an impact as in the past. Despite promises of continued development, voters, fed up with increasing corruption, a widening ethnic and religious rift and an indecisive government leadership, handed the National Front unprecedented defeats in general elections last year. Najib is also under increasingly intense attack by the opposition over allegations of kickbacks from defence contracts and has been accused of involvement in the murder of a Mongolian model, both of which claims he has repeatedly denied. There will be an extra 2 million voters under 30 in the next general election, according to the Election Commission, and voters in that category deserted the National Front in the last election, attracted by the opposition's anti-corruption message and ethnically inclusive policies. By-elections loom Just a week after Najib takes office there is a parliamentary by-election and three state seat by-elections on April 7. Failure to win any of those could see Najib labelled a lame duck. The opposition People's Alliance led by Anwar Ibrahim has won two by-elections since the March 2008 general election. Both campaigns were run by Najib who will have to prove he can transform the fortunes of UMNO and the National Front. The parliamentary by-election and one of the state elections is in Perak, where political tensions are on the boil after a putsch organized by Najib to win power in the state backfired when the People's Alliance legislators called early elections. The National Front coalition holds just one of the state seats up for contest. It is hard to see it winning either seat in Perak where according to a poll from the independent Merdeka Center, 65 percent of voters back the opposition call for early state-wide polls. Early national polls? The National Front has traditionally called early polls as the country's economy recovers from economic downturns. There has been talk from some political analysts that Najib would also want to do that, to benefit from any economic upturn. But with no end in sight for the synchronized global economic crisis and with Malaysia set to lag due to its dependence on exports, polls in 2010 now look like an unlikely option. The latest date at which national polls can be held is 2013. Then there is the image problem. Najib had a popularity rating of just 51 percent according to a recent poll from the independent Merdeka Center. That is less than the 54 percent enjoyed by incumbent PM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. In contrast to Najib, Anwar has mass appeal and fires up his audiences with charged speeches, although he is in court again on what he says are trumped up charges of sodomy, a reprise of allegations that saw him imprisoned a decade ago. Provided Anwar can stay out of prison and keep his three party alliance together, he will keep the pressure on Najib.
