PROPONENTS of Japanese political reform have long chased an elusive dream of a system where instead of virtual one-party rule, two big parties with clear, cohesive policies alternate in power. Now speculation is simmering that the dream might at last become reality, since a re-jig of party alliances could offer a way out of a political deadlock that has foiled Tokyo's efforts to cope with a raft of problems from pensions to climate change. “There is lots of jockeying going on. A lot of people are convinced that there will be a break-up of the two parties, probably after an election rather than prior to it,” said Columbia University political science professor Gerry Curtis. Several cross-party groups have been set up to debate policies and forge ties, although political analysts say any reshuffle would face big hurdles. Opposition parties won control of parliament's upper house last July, giving them power to delay bills and veto appointments such as that of central bank chief, a post filled only on Wednesday after being embarrassingly vacant since March 19. An opposition victory in the next general election, which must be held by September 2009 but could come sooner, would solve the problem of what Japanese media call Japan's “twisted parliament,” where the ruling bloc controls only the lower house. Anything short of that, however, would mean the gridlock could persist until at least the next upper house poll in 2010 - unless politicians regroup or switch camps. Fueling the realignment talk is the composition of Japan's two main parties, whose members run the gamut from security doves seeking warmer ties with Asian neighbors to pro-Washington hawks; and from advocates of relatively unfettered free markets to those longing for a kinder, gentler capitalism. Among the groups attracting attention as a possible catalyst for realignment is “Sentaku,” founded in January by governors, academics and businesspeople who share such broad goals as greater autonomy for local governments, less control of policy by bureaucrats, and a refocusing of policies on consumer interests. Last month, more than 100 lawmakers from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been in power for most of the past six decades, and its biggest rival, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), banded together to support Sentaku's stated aims. Ironically, while the 10-year-old Democratic Party may have its best chance to date of ousting the LDP in the next election, many cynics suspect that what its current leader, Ichiro Ozawa, really has in mind is a shake-up of the political landscape. Ozawa lit the torch of realignment when he bolted the LDP in 1993, starting a chain reaction that resulted in the conservative party's brief loss of power and sowing the seeds of the Democratic Party. LDP lawmaker Koichi Kato, who was once seen as a contender for prime minister, leads another cross-party group of about 20 lawmakers. “I think we need a broader channel for dialogue,” Kato, 68,” told Reuters, explaining the aim of his group. Despite all the maneuvering, analysts say a broad party reshuffle along policy lines could be an elusive dream. __
