ISRAEL's lurch to the right at last week's general elections seems certain to rule out any progress on the peace front for the foreseeable future. But all is not lost. Two positive trends are still alive: one is the possibility of a truce between Israel and Hamas, and the other a truce between Fatah and Hamas. Both should be welcomed. Amos Gilad, the chief Israeli negotiator, is due back in Cairo early next week with an answer to Hamas's latest proposals, while representatives of Fatah and Hamas have been meeting in preparation for reconciliation talks on 22 February. There are no winners in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. All the actors recognize that they need a pause in which to tend their wounds. The question is whether they are ready to make the necessary concessions for an agreement. A truce is, by definition, a temporary arrangement. But that is the best that can be hoped for at the moment. After very considerable effort, Egypt's veteran Intelligence chief Omar Suleiman seems close to hammering out the terms of a truce between Israel and Hamas. Since Israel refuses to deal directly with Hamas, Suleiman has passed messages back and forth between the warring parties, clearly using persuasion and pressure as well. Egypt is not only a mediator. It is also a party to the conflict. It has chosen to keep its Rafah crossing closed, earning the accusation from the Arab public that it has been complicit with Israel's siege, and – worse still – with Israel's war. Furthermore, the many tunnels into Gaza, which have kept the besieged population alive, originate in Egyptian territory. If Egypt now manages to negotiate a truce between Israel and Hamas it will ease pressure on it from Arab opinion, and will serve to justify its position as a neutral mediator. According to reports from Egypt, an Israeli-Hamas truce is likely to include the following elements: *An undertaking by both sides to put an end to violence for 18 months – that is to say no more Hamas rockets and no more Israeli raids (unless, of course, one side or the other breaks the truce.) *Israel seems ready to lift the ban on 80% of the commercial traffic through its six crossing points into Gaza, on condition that the tunnels from Egypt into Gaza are firmly closed down, under international monitoring. *The ban on the remaining 20% of the traffic could be lifted once an exchange of prisoners is agreed, including the freeing of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli corporal held by Hamas for more than two years. The irony is that Israel could have secured these terms – and even better ones – had they not sought to destroy Hamas by their cruel siege and by their devastating three-week war. Instead, Hamas has survived, and even gained prestige, although at terrible cost to its people, while Israel has aroused ferocious hate among Arabs and Muslims. Its international image has been severely damaged. And its brutal, war-mongering leaders have reminded the world that they are racist killers, totally unready for peaceful integration into the region. Now that there is talk of a truce, Egypt seems inclined to agree to open the Rafah crossing, but if, and only if, Hamas and Fatah put an end to their feud. This would allow for Palestinian Authority security forces to be present on the Gaza side of the crossing, as Egypt has insisted. Clearly, many details remain to be thrashed out for both truces to take effect. Israel is determined to prevent bomb-making equipment from entering Gaza. While it may allow cement and steel into the Strip, it will be reluctant to allow in cables, pipes and chemicals. This would greatly impede urgently needed reconstruction. The terms of the prisoner exchange also remain to be settled. In exchange for Shalit, Hamas is demanding the release of 1,250 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons – militants as well as Hamas's jailed parliamentarians. But Israel is well aware that any exchange of this size would not only add to Hamas's popularity, but would also give the Islamic movement a majority in the Palestinian legislative assembly, putting Mahmoud Abbas's position in danger. As Abbas's mandate as President of the PA expired on 9 January, Hamas has been pressing for his departure. Nevertheless, the mood in the Palestinian camp is in favour of reconciliation. A donors' conference for the rebuilding of Gaza is due to be held in March. Most Palestinians understand – if not yet all their leaders – that only a united Palestinian front, and hopefully an effective Palestinian unity government, can save their cause from extinction. Factionalism has been the plague of the Palestinians since they first woke up, in the early 1920s, to the danger posed by the large-scale arrival in Palestine of European Jews. They failed then to unify their ranks under a single leadership, as they are failing to do today. It was largely due to Palestinian – and Arab – divisions that more than three-quarters of Palestine was lost. Today, the Palestinians are in acute danger of losing what small portion remains. Only if the Palestinians unite, can the world – and Barack Obama, the new American President
