The deal struck between Iran and China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK and the US is being hailed as a great breakthrough, not least by President Barack Obama. But how can it really be such an achievement, if after nine years of talks, Iran has in essence, merely agreed to abide by the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty to which it had already signed up? And if, as President Hassan Rohani said, as he greeted the agreement, Iran had never intended to produce nuclear weapons, why had it not permitted the unhindered access of inspectors from the international Atomic Energy Agency? Washington will argue that the deal has gone further than that. Tehran has agreed to mothball two-thirds of the centrifuges essential for producing weapons grade plutonium, meanwhile getting rid of 98 percent of its plutonium stockpile. Obama has also stressed that the sanctions will be reimposed the moment the Iranians are seen to be welching on the deal. But by then the Iranians will have got their hands on $100 billion of assets frozen around the world. Moreover, foreign businessmen will be pouring into Tehran, anxious to pick up lucrative contracts. And the Iranians will be going out of their way to ensure that these agreements stack up as quickly as possible. It will not have gone unnoticed in Tehran that the willingness to reimpose sanctions on Burma because of its continued official persecution of its Muslim minority, has diminished with every new buck invested in the country. Iran's neighbors, not least the Kingdom, must necessarily welcome the deal. But equally they must be forgiven for still entertaining considerable doubts about its workability. A key opportunity was missed to include in the negotiations a revision of Tehran's aggressive interference other states in the region. Some would argue that the continuation of an arms embargo for five more years, with an eight-year moratorium on the supply of missiles, is not the victory Washington imagines. $100 billion and a freeing up on oil incomes can buy a great deal weaponry under the counter. Then there is the idea that from hereon in Tehran and Washington are going to be working together to confront the menace of Daesh (so-called IS), in Iraq and Syria and wherever else its chooses to rear ugly head. This is to ignore Iran's massive financial and logistical support for the Assad regime and indeed the role that that regime played in bringing into being the monster that is Daesh. It would be good to believe that the Iranian government will use this opportunity to open a new chapter in its relations with its neighbors. That is certainly what most Iranians seemed to be hoping as they celebrated the agreement on Tuesday evening. But it should not be forgotten that there remains an important core of hard-liners able, as they did only last week, to turn out mobs to burn US flags and rant the same old rhetoric which pitched Iran against the international community, not least other states in the region. Iran is being given back its economic life. Will it use this release wisely? Obama says the agreement relies not on trust, but on verification. Despite nine years of tortuous negotiations in which Tehran has demonstrated the utmost slipperiness, the president still insists that he is confident that the deal is going to work. We shall see.
