Burundi is the world's second poorest country. Life expectancy is a mere 50 years. The ten and a half million population, therefore, had challenges enough before its president, Pierre Nkurunziza, decided to ignore the constitutional two-term limit and run for office for a third time. Nkurunziza's move first ignited popular protests. Then elements of the army led a coup while the president was on a foreign trip. This classic tactic did not, however, work. A key part of the army remained loyal. Rebel commanders were arrested and their leader, General Godefroid Niyombare has gone into hiding. Though the African Union and the European Union had urged him to postpone the vote, Nkurunziza, who has been in power for almost a decade, is still insisting that the elections will go ahead as planned on June 26. The former Hutu rebel leader has embarked on a dangerous path. He assumed office at the end of a brutal civil war that raged between 1993 and 2005. In the conflict 300,000 people died, many more were seriously injured and millions of refugees fled the fighting. Nkurunziza's ten-year rule has seen relative stability, thanks to a peace deal which gave constitutional guarantees to the Tutsi minority who make up around 15 percent of the population but who nevertheless used to rule the country. Even so, the president has sought to clamp down on opposition politicians and there have been a series of unexplained assassinations. Earlier this year, Nkurunziza tried but failed to amend the constitution to roll back the guaranteed representation of Tutsis in all national institutions. His supporters have argued that since he was first appointed by the country's new parliament in 2005 and not directly elected, he is entitled to seek a mandate in what will be only the second direct presidential election. This is, however, sophistry. The risk is clear. By seeking to ignore the constitution, Nkurunziza is effectively tearing up the peace deal which ended the horrific 12-year civil war. It is also notable that it is not merely Tutsis who have been protesting his would-be third term. A significant number of Hutus have also been involved. Tragically, it seems as if, yet again, an African leader is placing his own desire to cling to power above the interests of his country. Nkurunziza has promised that he will not be “seeking revenge” against the rebels. He is vowing that the courts will deal with those involved in the failed coup. It is, however, not difficult to imagine that either the courts will hand down the sentences that the president demands, or he will ignore their decisions and punish the rebels as he sees fit. The African Union has a big role to play here. It must make it absolutely clear to Nkurunziza that he and his government will face severe sanctions if they flout the critically important constitutional settlement. There should be no half measures. Nkurunziza must be made to understand that if he does not relinquish office and go into retirement there will be serious personal consequences. Moreover, the wide-based popular protest is not going to go away. The clear danger is that locked out of the political process, dissidents are going to take up arms. Nkurunziza's ill-advised attempt to cling to power could once again plunge Burundi into a vicious and bloody civil war. This dirt poor country deserves better.
