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Zimbabwe on a precipice
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 04 - 04 - 2008

ZIMBABWEAN leader Robert Mugabe, known for his fierce and defiant rhetoric, is perhaps fighting to survive the biggest crisis of his 28-year rule. The crisis has put the southern African country virtually on a precipice. All signs are that Mugabe, a liberation war leader still respected in Africa, is in the worst trouble after facing an unprecedented challenge in the elections.
Widely blamed for the economic collapse of his once prosperous nation, Mugabe has faced growing discontent with the world's highest inflation rate of more than 100,000 percent, a virtually worthless currency and severe food and fuel shortages.
Even though there is no official word yet on the results in last Saturday's key vote, a tense waiting game is on in the country. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is already trumpeting its victory after the election commission's acknowledgement that Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF had lost control of parliament for the first time in nearly three decades.
The proclaimed opposition victory has limited the options for Mugabe and all sides want to dissaude him from ordering troops onto the streets.
Mugabe has survived through a political patronage system rewarding loyalists, including rural chiefs, and an iron fist that punishes dissenters. But, of late, there have been divisions and desertions in his camp over his refusal to hand over power to a younger leadership.
The West, which has a love-hate relationship with Mugabe, is also keen to get rid of the Zimbabwean strongman, who has often been accused of being an authoritarian ruler. Ties between Zimbabwe and Britain have been particularly strained since the government began expropriating white-owned farms and Mugabe has consistently tried to portray the MDC leaders as puppets of the former colonial master.
Given Mugabe's stance, the West has largely placed the responsibility for resolving the crisis in Zimbabwe in the hands of Southern African Development Community (SADC) and South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki.
There are growing fears that Mugabe and his cronies, who control all the levers of power, could still refuse to abide by the voters' verdict and use dictatorial methods to deal with the feared violence. That would be disastrous for the country already beset by an economic gloom. The African Union and democratic countries elsewhere should do everything possible to help foster a peaceful transition in Zimbabwe even if this means assuring Mugabe and his associates an escape route despite their alleged crimes and misdeeds. __


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