LONDON/PARIS — Oil prices fell Tuesday after the International Energy Agency predicted that global oil prices will recover only partially over the next five years. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March delivery slipped 70 cents to $52.16 a barrel compared with Monday's close. Brent North Sea crude for March slid 35 cents to stand at $57.99 a barrel in London afternoon trade. The price of oil is poised for a “relatively swift” recovery following the recent collapse to under $50 a barrel, but it will not come close to returning to the highs of past years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted Tuesday. In a report, the Paris-based organization of 29 major oil-importing nations said the rebound in recent days of the oil price “will be comparatively limited in scope, with prices stabilizing at levels higher than recent lows but substantially below the highs of the last three years.” The US benchmark oil contract fell from nearly $110 a barrel last summer to under $45 this year before a recovery to around $53 in recent days. The IEA said the current price recovery is unlike those of the past, because of the sharp increase in production by non-OPEC countries, especially in the United States, as well as slowing demand in China and slimmed down fuel intensiveness in the developed world. The agency also said that unlike past cycles, the low oil price is not expected to greatly boost economic output, because low demand was itself part of the reason for the market drop. “The fact that lackluster demand was part of the reason for the recent price collapse suggests that the sell-off will only go so far in boosting economic growth and lifting oil demand,” the agency said. The IEA now forecasts global oil demand to reach 93.3 million barrels a day in 2015, well below the 94.2 million barrels forecast in its last report. “Unlike earlier price drops, this one is both supply- and demand-driven,” the IEA said. Citing a major shakeup in the oil markets, the IEA watchdog said in its five-year forecast that prices will recover from current levels of around $50-55 per barrel to $73 per barrel in 2020. That is considerably below the more than $100 per barrel reached before prices began to fall in June. “The global oil market looks set to begin a new chapter of its history, with markedly changing demand dynamics, sweeping shifts in crude trade and product supply, and dramatically different roles for OPEC and non-OPEC producers in regulating upstream supply,” the IEA said. It added that it sees market rebalancing occurring “relatively swiftly”, with increases in inventories halting mid-year and the market tightening. Tuesday's drop in prices “is likely due to the IEA report that predicts only a slow recovery for oil”, said Shailaja Nair, associate editorial director at energy information provider Platts. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast non-OPEC oil supply growth of 850,000 barrels per day for 2015, down from its previous estimate and led by a cut in US output. A survey by US oil services firm Baker Hughes Inc released Friday showed that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States fell by 83 to 1,140 in the week to February 6. The dip followed a cut of 94 rigs the previous week. The drop, coupled with announcements of deep cuts in capital spending by major oil companies, suggests tighter supplies in the future. Oil prices are down by about 50 percent from their June peaks, largely owing to a surge in global reserves boosted by robust production of oil from US shale rock. The sharp decline will meanwhile provide “some boost” to global growth and should allow states to “reassess” fiscal policies to sustain economic activity, the G20 leading economies said in a draft communique at their meeting in Istanbul Tuesday. — Agencies
