THE arrival in New Delhi next week (Nov 21) of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan will provide Indian leaders with an opportunity to discuss bilateral issues and a critical gas pipeline, of course. But more important it will enable them to share their perceptions of the Barack Obama Presidency in Washington. Turkish President Abdullah Gul has a story he loves to tell. When Gul was foreign Minister, a group of European Foreign Ministers engaged him in an extended after-dinner conversation. What were Turkey's foreign policy priorities? Gul fell into deep thought. He mentioned Afghanistan where a strong Turkish contingent had at the outset led the multinational forces. Iraq was a key concern because American withdrawal could pave the way for an independent Kurdistan in the north. This Turkey would never allow. Gul mentioned the Caucasus, which were not only a key producer of energy, but also its route to Europe. Iran, which also was concerned about the Iraqi outcome was another one of Turkey's preoccupations. Also, Iranian gas would at some stage have to pass through the Balkans, a region of deep interest to Turkey. Gul rattled on – relations with EU, Cyprus, Kosovo, Russia, Armenia. One of the European Ministers put up his hands, “Are you the United States?,” he asked. Gul had not yet mentioned the mediating role Turkey was playing between Syria and Israel, or between the Macedonians and Albanians on the issue of Kosovo. Each one of the crisis spots Turkey is involved in happens to be high on the US priority list. Conversations between Washington and Ankara on all these issues take place in an atmosphere of unusual trust, because, Turkey also happens to be a trusted member of NATO. It could be an interesting range of views between Manmohan Singh and Erdogan. Ankara's wide range of foreign policy concerns are because of Turkey's location. “Breezes from Arab lands, Europe, Mediterranean, Caucasus, Balkans blow through our land,” says a senior official in the PM's office. That is precisely the reason why Erdogan's visit is an excellent occasion for South Block to exchange views on what possible changes one might expect from the Obama administration. Both, New Delhi and Ankara were fairly deeply locked with the Bush administration, with minor differences in detail. Ankara, for instance, showed spine when it refused to allow US ground troops passage to northern Iraq when the invasion began in March 2003. The issue was refered to the national assembly which rejected the US proposal. A few months after this rejection the US sounded out New Delhi whether it would be interested in occupying the northern sector, bordering Turkey. The NDA cabinet more or less approved the dispatch of Indian brigades on this perilous adventure. It was only Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee who rejected the idea. An interesting vignette from South Block to reflect on just when the Turkish premier is embarking on an important visit. During the cold war there was for New Delhi a troublesome Teheran-Islamabad-Ankara axis. That is all in the distant past. Where two can exchange data is on Afghanistan, a country both know in detail. Neither can anticipate with certainty what policies might eventually emerge from the Obama White House once his foreign policy team is in place. But some of his campaign statements have caused concern in Ankara as well as New Delhi – in Ankara on Iraq and Cyprus and on Kashmir in New Delhi. There was, of course, one difference between Turkish and Indian response to the Bush years. Gradually Neo-con insensitivity to the Muslim world took its toll even in otherwise secular Turkey. Anti-Americanism was rampant. India remainded divided on America with the Muslims and the left taking a strong anti-American line. Dr Manmohan Singh demonstrated quite clearly which side of the divide he was on. “The people of India love you,” he told Bush during his visit to the US in September. Clearly those who briefed the Prime Minister did not expect an Obama victory. A statement like the one Manmohan Singh made was sustainable in the event of a McCain victory. It is embarrassing now that Obama has won. An important item on the bilateral agenda is a gas pipeline from Black sea port of Samsun to the Meditaranean and onto the Red Sea through an Israeli pipeline. The costs apparently have yet to be worked out. Moreover, the Government has to take a political call. It has to be truly ambidextrous discussing pipelines with Iran and Israel at the same time. __
