PATNA, Bihar — When everyone virtually wrote off Lalu Prasad Yadav, the charismatic backward caste leader of the eastern state of Bihar, as a political force after he was convicted in a scam and stripped of membership of Parliament, the Yadav leader is proving them all wrong. With the elections held in the half of the Bihar's 40 parliamentary constituencies, Lalu's party — the Rashtriya Janata Dal — in alliance with the Congress party is surging ahead, giving the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance a run for its money. The RJD and Congress party have joined hands after they split in 2009, having realized how they faltered fighting separately — and against each other — getting six out of Bihar's 40 seats. In comparison, BJP-Janata Dal (United) had swept Bihar with 34 seats. Today, Nitish Kumar's JD(U) is plowing a lonely furrow, and is up against a resurgent Congress-RJD-NCP alliance that has emerged as a potent force, becoming the first choice of 26 percent Muslims and Yadavs in Bihar. Kumar's messy parting with the BJP in 2013 appears not to have impressed Muslim voters, who are rooting for Lalu. After three phases of polling , the RJD and the Congress party look sure of reviving their electoral fortune. Enthused by the overwhelming response, especially in Muslim pockets, Lalu is claiming he will improve even on his 2004 Lok Sabha performance when the Congress-RJD alliance, along with then ally LJP, had walked away with 29 of the 40 seats. It would be a tall order to repeat that: RJD had then won in 22 constituencies, LJP in four and Congress in three seats. The RJD in 2009 was the largest constituent of the first United Progressive Alliance government after the Congress party. An analysis of the voting pattern of different communities in 20 seats in the last three phases and interviews with a cross-section of voters reveals the Congress-RJD candidates are in a good position on 10 seats, with the BJP-LJP alliance looking good in the other 10. “It's an even battle so far, with a slight advantage to the BJP-led alliance,” said a political analyst in Patna. The BJP, which had won 12 seats in 2012, is likely to improve its tally riding the Modi wave, and both the saffron party and RJD are gaining at the cost of JD(U), the political analyst added. ” The Congress party, which had won just two seats in 2009, is this year going to win at least six seats this year out of 12 it's contesting because of polarization of Muslim and backward votes toward the RJD-Congress-NCP alliance,” Congress's Bihar general secretary Vinod Sharma claimed.
