“Be Careful What You Wish For or You Just May Get it ” is a currently popular Chinese saying which might perhaps have crossed the mind of Turkish premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday night, as it seemed his moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) had won a stunning victory in local elections. In nationwide balloting, whose fairness does not appear to be widely disputed by opposition parties, the AKP appear to have won more than 45 percent of the votes, romping away from nearest rival, the venerable Republican People's Party which notched up less than 30 percent. What makes this result even more significant is that at the last local elections five years ago, the AKP amassed only 38.8 percent of the popular vote. The way would now seem to be clear for Erdogan to stand for the presidency in Turkey's first direct elections to that post, which are due to be held in August. Despite widespread protests at his increasingly imperious style of government, despite his government's implication in corruption probes, and despite what Erdogan himself has claimed is a deadly conspiracy against him by supporters of self-exiled former political ally, Muslim preacher Fethullah Gulen, the controversial Turkish leader has triumphed. This clearly being the case, the first question worth asking is how really deadly was the Gulenist threat? Have Erdogan and his people talked up a danger that in reality is minimal at best? Were the probes into the business dealings of government ministers and even his own son, really motivated by Gulenists? Or were police and prosecutors merely doing their jobs, for which hundreds of them have since been fired or moved by a vengeful Erdogan government? The Turkish premier's victory has been so complete that he felt himself empowered to warn his enemies that he was now going to be coming after them. He also told the outside world, in effect that it could butt out of Turkey's affairs. There will be many who will now say that with this huge popular vote of approval — the turnout of electors was high — Erdogan stands at a new high in his political trajectory. And herein lies a new danger. If the Turkish leader's steady clampdown on the press and social media is now to go further, if projects such as the controversial building-over of Istanbul's city center Gezi park now go ahead and if Erdogan seeks the vengeful crushing of his political opponents, he will be abusing the strong new electoral mandate that he has been given. And he will be doing more. He will be fostering a highly risky polarization in a vibrant country that stands on the brink of major international economic achievements. It is the wealth-creating and steadily-growing middle classes who by and large oppose Erdogan. Entrepreneurial, well-educated and more anxious to work and prosper in a stable and welcoming economy, middle class members have, often reluctantly, found themselves politicized by Erdogan's high and mighty leadership. This is surely only going to get worse. And with falling international confidence in an overheated economy and a steep rise in perceived political risk, Turkish business and finance looks to be facing increasing challenges. Thus there will be those who will feel that in the moment of the sort of political triumph for which he could hardly have ever wished, the seeds of Erdogan's political downfall have been thickly sown.
