Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is widely expected to reshuffle his government, but political and economic analysts say big changes in economic policy are unlikely. Although Turkish media suggest the finance and energy ministers could be replaced, the analysts do not expect a reshuffle would give any new impetus to a reform drive needed to secure European Union membership. Erdogan has said nothing about a reshuffle, but Turkish media expected changes following allegations of high-level corruption and because of the ruling AK party's long-running battle with secularists over the role of Islam. Erdogan is expected to keep a grip on policy, including combating the global financial crisis, signing a new deal with the International Monetary Fund and the drive to join the EU. “With the global crisis hitting the markets we are not expecting a hypothetical cabinet reshuffle to bring changes to the government's macroeconomic policies,” said Ozgur Altug from Raymond James Securities in Istanbul. “Erdogan knows the benefits of sticking to fiscal policy and even if there is a change in the Finance Ministry he is going to stick to fiscal discipline,” Altug said. Turkish media and government sources say Finance Minister Kemal Unakitan, Energy Minister Hilmi Guler and Education Minister Huseyin Celik could be ousted. Turkish media have said Foreign Minister Ali Babacan could also cease to be Turkey's chief negotiator for EU membership. The weakening lira, a slowing economy and a large current account deficit in a climate of global turmoil are expected to be the government's main concerns in coming months. Conciliatory gesture? If he removed Celik, who has infuriated the secular establishment with statements on religion and controversial proposals for the education system, Erodgan would hope his move would be interpreted as a conciliatory gesture. Erdogan's Islamist-rooted AK Party narrowly survived a legal attempt by a prosecutor to close it for alleged Islamist activities in July, but Turkey's top court fined it for being a focal point of anti-secular activities. Markets have since then been watching for any signs that Erdogan will move the AK Party to the centre of Turkish politics by dismissing the more sectarian elements of his cabinet. The secularist establishment, which includes the military and judges, accuses the AK Party of harbouring a hidden Islamist agenda, an accusation Erdogan denies. “Removing Celik would ease some concerns the secularists have toward the government and could be seen as a positive step, but we have to see who would be the replacement,” said Wolfango Piccoli, of Eurasia consultancy group. “This government is still on probation.” Finance Minister Unakitan, a close friend of Erdogan, has been hit by sleaze allegations. He has also seen his influence wane with the rise of Nazim Ekren, the deputy prime minister and economic coordinator. Unakitan's departure could be seen as an attempt to bolster the AK Party's credentials before municipal elections scheduled for March. EU negotiator Turkey, a predominantly Muslim country, began accession talks with the EU in 2005 but the pace of reforms has slowed since then and negotiations have moved slowly. Babacan, criticised in some quarter for a lacklustre performance in ties with the EU, has been busy dealing with the Caucasus and Middle East. By appointing a new EU coordinator, Erdogan could try to show Brussels the government is serious about boosting its EU membership bid. Egemen Bagis, an Erdogan adviser on foreign affairs who speaks fluent English and French, is being tipped as a possible replacement for Babacan. If Guler were removed as energy minister, he would leave at a time when Turkey is trying to diversify energy importing needs by signing a gas deal with Iran and Central Asian countries. Ankara's efforts to reduce its dependency on energy from abroad suffered a setback when it received just one bid to build Turkey's first nuclear power plant. – Reuters __
