Hassan Rohani, variously described as a centrist and moderate, has won the presidential election in Iran by garnering more than 50 percent of the votes. Out of 36,740,156 votes cast, 18,613,329 went to him. “A great political epic has shocked the world,” read a front-page headline in Iranian newspaper Kayhan Saturday. One American newspaper saw in the election result “a striking repudiation of the ultraconservatives who wield power in Iran.” Both can be dismissed as so much empty talk and wishful thinking. But there is no denying the surprisingly decisive nature of Rohani's mandate. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Tehran mayor, who took the second place won only 6,077,292 votes (16.56 percent). The 64-year-old Rohani, who has held several parliamentary posts and served as chief nuclear negotiator, was one of six candidates in the field. He was endorsed by two ex-presidents — Muhammad Khatami and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was disqualified from the race by the powerful Guardian Council. Still nobody expected him to win or win by such large margin after a lackluster campaign. Although some Western countries fault the election for its “lack of transparency,” the turnout was estimated at 72.2 percent among the 50 million Iranians who were eligible to choose a successor to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Voting was extended by five hours on Friday evening to allow more people to cast their ballots. To avoid any suspicion about the accuracy of the count as happened in 2009, authorities released the official vote total in live updates, which showed a steady increase in Rouhani's margin of victory over Qalibaf. Will Rouhani's victory lead to any change in Iran's domestic and foreign policies? Those pinning high hopes on the new president should remember that Iran's ruling establishment, a tight alliance of clerics and the ultra-powerful Revolutionary Guard, still holds all the effective power and sets the agenda on all major decisions. But the ruling establishment can't ignore the message of change that the electorate has sent them. They know how Western sanctions over Iran's nuclear program have shrunk vital oil sales and are leaving the country isolated from international banking systems. Even in the immediate neighborhood Iran has not many friends. This may enable Rohani, known as one of Iran's leading foreign policy experts, to take some initiatives aimed at shifting policies that have subjected his country to deepening isolation and harsh economic sanctions. He knows how economic hardship, rising unemployment, a devalued currency and soaring inflation are making ordinary Iranians restive. With the backing of former presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani, Rohani will have a powerful mandate to polish his country's international profile and attempt to negotiate a settlement of Iran's nuclear activities. He told a crowd at one campaign stop last week, “I'll pursue a policy of reconciliation and peace.” He should also reach out to the Gulf states and settle the dispute with United Arab Emirates over the group of islands — Abu Musa and the nearby Greater and Lesser Tunb — that dominate the approach to the Strait of Hormuz, the route for about one-fifth of the world's oil supply. On its part, the US needs to try to reach a comprehensive settlement with Tehran. Washington's present approach is narrowly focused on Iran's nuclear program. Without Tehran's cooperation, America can neither end the turmoil in Syria nor bring a measure of stability to Iraq.
