Thailand's influential former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra suddenly left the country on his private jet Thursday days before a court ruling that could see him imprisoned, raising speculation that he might not return to face the verdict. His departure came a day before Thailand's parliament was set to pick a new prime minister and install a new government Friday; the ruling Pheu Thai party, which Thaksin founded, was widely expected to lose power. Thaksin, 76, spent 15 years in self-imposed exile after being ousted from office in a 2006 military coup. His daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who became Thailand's youngest prime minister last year, was removed from office a week ago following an ethics probe. Over the past 25 years, Thaksin has built one of the country's most famous and successful political dynasties, with allied candidates winning almost every election since 2001. But that dynasty has long been loathed by Thailand's powerful conservative and royalist establishment which, with the help of both the military and courts, has frequently toppled or tied up Shinawatra-run governments. Many observers feel that the family's power in Thailand is diminished, and its long dominant political machine could finally be out of steam. Thaksin said in a social media post early Friday that he intended to travel to Singapore for "a health check-up" but was held up at Thai immigration for several hours. His private jet flew out of Bangkok's Don Mueang airport just after 7 p.m. local time after immigration authorities confirmed there was no court order prohibiting him from leaving the country, police said in a statement. Thousands of Thais on Thursday watched as flight tracking data showed Thaksin's plane, a Bombardier Global 7500 numbered T7GTS, flying toward Singapore before turning west and circling several times. The plane then heads toward India. Thaksin said the pilot changed course for Dubai after being informed it was too late to land at Singapore's Seletar Airport, which closes at 10 p.m. local time. "Since landing in Singapore was no longer possible, I decided to have the pilot change course to Dubai instead, because in Dubai I have my regular orthopedic doctor and pulmonologist," Thaksin wrote on X. "While waiting for permission from Dubai Airport, the pilot had to circle for quite some time until clearance was granted, then continued flying on to Dubai." Thaksin said he intends to return to Thailand to hear the ruling in a Supreme Court case against him on September 9. Speculation is now swirling in Thailand that Thaksin may not return. Following his ouster in 2006, Thaksin spent 15 years in self-imposed exile living in Dubai and elsewhere to avoid prison for abuse of power and corruption during his time in power, charges he claimed were politically motivated. The former owner of Manchester City Football Club continued to play an outsized role in politics behind the scenes despite his absence, with many believing he took on the role of puppet master. His sister Yingluck ran a government until a court ruling ended her tenure followed by a 2014 military coup, while Thaksin's brother-in-law was also in charge of Thailand briefly during his absence. In 2023, Thaksin made a dramatic return to Thailand and was taken into custody upon his arrival to serve an 8-year sentence related to convictions imposed in his absence. Thailand's King Maha Vajiralongkorn then reduced Thaksin's prison sentence to one year, before he was released on parole six months later. Despite the sentence, Thaksin never spent a night in a prison cell. He served his time in a suite at Bangkok's Police General Hospital. The nature of his detention raised questions that he received special treatment and the Supreme Court verdict on Tuesday will decide whether Thaksin's time in hospital counted as time served. If the court rules against him, Thaksin could be sent to prison. Many analysts believe Thaksin struck a deal with the country's powerful conservative and royalist establishment for his return in exchange for a reduced jail term, lenient treatment, or a possible pardon. Thaksin returned on the same day his family's political party took up the reins of government once again. Thaksin has denied making such an arrangement. The political patriarch recently survived a lese majeste case against him that could have seen him jailed for up to 15 years. Thailand is at a crucial juncture. Over the past two decades the kingdom has largely been ruled by the Shinawatras or their proxies, or the military. But that could be about to change. Parliament is expected to pick a new prime minister Friday – the country's third in three years. Paetongtarn was removed from office on August 29 over a leaked phone call she had with Cambodia's former leader during a deadly border conflict between the two countries. The Constitutional Court ruled she lacked integrity and seriously breached ethics rules in the call, which plummeted her Pheu Thai Party's already declining popularity. Pheu Thai has put forward its last remaining candidate for prime minister, the former justice minister Chaikasem Nitisiri. But it is facing a major challenge from the Bhumjaithai Party, a former coalition partner turned rival. Its candidate Anutin Charnvirakul, a veteran of Thai politics, is widely expected to win the vote in parliament after the main opposition People's Party, which holds the most seats by a single party, threw its conditional support behind Bhumjaithai. An agreement between the two parties stipulated that Bhumjaithai must dissolve the House of Representatives, which would lead to early elections, and work on drafting a new constitution. The People's Party said it would remain in the opposition. The People's Party is the reincarnation of Move Forward, the hugely popular progressive party that won the 2023 general election but was prevented from forming a government over its agenda to make deep structural reforms to how Thailand is run, including to the country's powerful monarchy. It was later dissolved. The alliance could be an uneasy one given Anutin's strong royalist leanings. He previously refused to join hands with the party over its promises for royal reform. Bhumjaithai also initiated a case against Move Forward 's leader Pita Limjaroenrat that resulted in the lawmaker being banned from politics for 10 years. Pita's party was particularly popular with Thailand's youth, who have taken to the streets in recent years clamoring for widespread reform, only to see their movements silenced by prosecutions and their political leaders stymied. — CNN
