Russia is moving a large amount of military equipment in Syria, signaling preparations for a partial withdrawal, analysts say. Satellite images reveal a build-up of military vehicles at a Russian-controlled port and airbase in western Syria. Transport aircraft also appear to have arrived and departed the country in recent days. BBC Verify has also geolocated videos showing extensive columns of Russian military trucks moving north toward these bases. The Institute for the Study of War suggests this indicates preparations for a reduction or complete withdrawal of Russian forces. The Washington-based think tank added that moving military vehicles to its bases may be a precautionary measure while Moscow negotiates with the new government in Damascus. A map showing Hmeimim air base and the Tartous naval facility in Syria Russia had a significant military presence in Syria during Bashar al-Assad's rule – helping him stay in power after the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Its two most significant bases are the port at Tartous, established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and then expanded and modernized by Russia in 2012, and the airbase at Hmeimim, which has been operational since 2015 and was used to launch air strikes across Syria in support of Assad. Both have become key strategic bases for Russia – giving it easier access to the Middle East, North Africa and the Mediterranean Sea. However, the fall of Assad has raised questions about Russia's future presence in Syria. Moscow is seeking to negotiate with the new regime. On Monday, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said there have been "no final decisions" and that Russia was "in contact with representatives of the forces that now control the situation in [Syria]". BBC Verify has been monitoring Hmeimim air base activity by using Planet Labs satellite imagery. There are signs of sustained activity, involving sizeable military transport planes. Two large Antonov An-124 aircraft, which may be used to move assets out of Syria, were seen at the base on Friday. They had left by Tuesday, but two large planes were again in the base by Wednesday morning. Further imagery taken by Maxar Technologies on Sunday shows dozens of military vehicles parked at the airfield near a Russian-made Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane, which could be used for evacuations. BBC Verify tracked one large Russian Antonov An-124 from Tuesday on plane tracking website Flightradar24. Its publicly available tracker showed it in Russian airspace, travelling in the direction of Syria. It then disappeared from Flightradar24 off the Syrian coast, west of Hmeimim air base, likely because its public tracker was switched off. It can next be seen heading back north six hours later. David Heathcote, intelligence manager at McKenzie Intelligence, said the rapid collapse of the Assad government meant it was unlikely Russia had a plan to evacuate resources. He described the activity at Hmeimim air base as "unusual", suggesting that Russia was storing some resources in the base and preparing to withdraw some equipment and personnel from Syria. Tayfun Ozberk, a former naval officer and defense analyst, agreed that the imagery indicated "early stages of a Russian withdrawal from Syria, with clear signs of an air-based evacuation." "The presence of Il-76 aircraft, the absence of Russian vessels at Tartous, and the organised pre-staging of vehicles and equipment support this conclusion," Ozberk said. BBC Verify reported last week how Russian warships had left the port at Tartous, with analysts suggesting they were being stationed in international waters for the time being. Those vessels have not returned – but more than 100 military vehicles have arrived at the base in recent days, satellite images show. Heathcote said it was likely the vehicles were being prepared for evacuation, although this was unlikely to be immediate due to the absence of loading ramps and cranes. Recent footage also showed large columns of Russian vehicles on the move – indicating they've been redirected from other Russian outposts across the country. BBC Verify geolocated the videos to a major highway, suggesting they were moving north towards the bases. An 80-second video published on X shows a long line of Russia vehicles, geolocated to 30km south of Homs. Another video showed a column of Russian vehicles on the same highway further south, 70km outside Damascus. "Russia is now withdrawing units and military equipment that were deployed in nearly a hundred strongholds across the country before the fall of Damascus," said Anton Mardasov, a non-resident scholar in the Middle East Institutes Syriaprogram. — BBC
