Early voting for the 2024 US presidential election is seeing a notable surge in new voter turnout, with Democratic women in Pennsylvania and Republican men in Arizona emerging as critical groups in key swing states. According to recent reports, nearly 60 million ballots have already been cast, with early voting patterns providing insights into the dynamics of this year's election. Data from NBC News Decision Desk shows a significant influx of new voters — those who did not vote in 2020 — in critical battlegrounds. In Pennsylvania, over 100,000 ballots have been cast, surpassing Biden's 2020 margin over Trump, with new Democratic women voters nearly doubling their Republican counterparts. This demographic could play a pivotal role in the state, widely regarded as essential for both campaigns. In contrast, Arizona's new voter landscape is led by Republican men, indicating strong Republican turnout. With a slim 2020 margin of just over 10,000 votes, this increase in Republican-leaning new voters could influence the state's outcome. Notably, a large number of unaffiliated voters are also turning out in both Pennsylvania and Arizona, adding an unpredictable element to the race. Elsewhere, early trends in Michigan and Wisconsin suggest higher new Democratic female voter turnout compared to Republican women, while new Republican men outpace Democratic men. North Carolina and Nevada are seeing a predominance of independent new voters, whose choices could ultimately sway results. With over 68 million ballots already cast, early voting turnout in battleground states has surpassed 2020 levels, underscoring the potential impact of new voters in this election. However, analysts urge caution in drawing conclusions, noting that early voting trends, while informative, cannot definitively predict outcomes ahead of Election Day on November 5. — Agencies
