LONDON — Millions of Malaysians go to the polls today (Sunday) in the country's 13th General Election, which promises to be the most closely contested vote since the country gained independence from Britain in 1957. While everyday issues such as the rising cost of living; the future of food and fuel subsidies; more jobs for the youth; access to affordable housing; the phasing out of affirmative action policies favoring the majority Malays; and the role of religion in national life, will once again be at the mind of ordinary voters, there is no doubt that today's vote is perhaps more about personalities and their respective vision for the future for the country. Malaysian politics has coalition engineered in its genes. The two main protagonists – Barisan Nasional (National Front) and the Opposition Pakatan Rakyat — are indeed multiracial, multilingual and multi-ideological coalitions – the unlikeliest bedfellows, which perhaps in any other democracy would have been impossible. While Mahathir Mohamed's immense personality hovers in the background (and some would say it still overshadows those of the two main contenders for the premiership – the incumbent Prime Minister Najib Razak and the Opposition Pakatan leader Anwar Ibrahim the real battle is that for the soul of the Malay voter. Barisan Nasional (BN), a coalition of 13 parties, has ruled Malaysia since independence. The dominant party is UMNO (the United Malays National Organization) which rules with the MCA (the Malaysian Chinese Association) and the Malaysia Indian Congress (MIC). But more recently, a former scion of the BN and a prodigal son of Malay politics, the former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Anwar Ibrahim, a firebrand Islamist leader in his youth, has returned — not to the UMNO fold but to take on his previous colleagues and to offer and alternative to the Malays and the country in the form of a new coalition, Pakatan Rakyat, the unlikeliest political get together grouping Anwar's People's Justice Party (PKR), the Pan-Islamic Malaysian Party (PAS) and the mainly-Chinese Democratic Action Party (DAP). Anwar dared to stage a palace putsch to oust Mahathir, only to fail spectacularly which saw him banished from UMNO and Malaysian politics for many years. Anwar even served a six-year prison sentence on various charges, which his supporters stressed were politically motivated. There's no love lost between Mahathir and Anwar and it has even manifested itself in the campaign for the current election. In an interview over the last few days Mahathir declared Anwar not fit for purpose to rule the country and warned that his election as prime minister will be a disaster for the country. The stakes for both Razak, the son of the highly-respected second Prime Minister of Malaysia, Abdul Razak, and Anwar are indeed high. In the 2008 General Election, Malaysian politics experienced a tremor when the BN for the first time lost its two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat (the national Parliament). That result led to the downfall of the then Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi. At the dissolution of Parliament, the BN held 137 out of 222 seats. Should it fail to improve on this, Razak will almost certainly be on his way out. On the other hand, Anwar is in the last chance saloon. At 65, this will be his final shot at the premiership, a job he has coveted since Mahathir ironically brought him into the UMNO fold having recognized his populist oratory during his days as the leader of ABIM, the Malaysian Islamic Youth Organization. Of course, if Anwar had been more politically astute and reined in his impatient coteries of young advisers, who sometimes gave the impression that they had a natural right to rule, he probably would have succeeded Mahathir as premier. Here lies the potential fault of Anwar as a politician. His transformation over the last few years has been staged and to a certain extent erratic. His earlier clarion call was ‘Reformasi' – reform. The problem is that he was claiming to reform a system of which he himself was such an integral part for many years and which he helped build up. During that period he was hobnobbing with the likes of neocons Paul Wolfowitz and Frank Gaffney. Even when he was Finance Minister during the Asian financial crisis in 1998, he was on the verge of inviting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for help — a move Mahathir immediately scuppered. The strategy now is that of offering the Malaysian voter an alternative choice, hence the Pakatan Rakyat is sometimes referred to as the Barisan Alternatif (the Alternative Front). The vision of an alternative is a powerful one. A healthy democracy is about a strong government and equally a strong opposition. Yet the BN is not unique in ruling for years at a go because of weak opposition. Both the Thatcher and Blair governments in the UK went on for over a decade. But whether the Pakatan and its leader Anwar truly offer that alternative remains to be seen. Even Mahathir acknowledges that a change of government for Malaysia would not be a bad thing, but with the caveat that the alternative has to be the right one and fit for purpose. With such a lot at stake, it is not surprising that both camps have accused each other of dirty tricks, scaremongering especially on racial issues, of election bribes through money politics and of election sweeteners through handouts especially to the rural poor, the heartland of UMNO support. These are usual in Malaysian election politics. Depending on who you speak to, come this week Malaysia will either have a re-invigorated National Front Government led by Najib Razak, or will witness a sea change through the election of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition as the new government other than the BN for the first time in the country's history. The DAP, like many Malaysian Chinese in the past, has always been distrustful of Anwar because of his previous Islamist sentiments and connections. Even with a transformed Anwar, their participation is likely that of political expediency. Similarly, with PAS, the Islamic party, which for many years has been stuck in a time warp, and even their new rhetoric on democracy seems a bit hollow. In Kelantan, where PAS is in power at state level, there are separate gender queues at supermarkets and Muslim women not wearing the Hijab in public are spot fined. What is interesting is the emphasis on economic issues in the Pakatan Election Manifesto with its “three Economic Thrusts' and “Extra Ringgit in the Rakyat's Pocket”. Malaysian government officials have accused the Western media of unrealistically playing up the challenge and chances of Pakatan, because as one official put it “he is the darling of Western interests.” The challenge remains, if Pakatan does win a historic election, will it hold together to rule Malaysia for the next five years as a unified coalition? Already there are signs of bickering between the coalition partner, over division of seats and the choice of Prime Minister – Anwar Ibrahim or the President of PAS, Hadi Awang. The challenge for BN and especially for UMNO similarly remains huge. Corruption and cronyism continues to be a problem. Businesses outside the Coalition circle of influence find it difficult to win procurement contracts, even more so if they are Chinese or Indian-owned. While the government has managed the economy fairly well with GDP growth for this year projected at a healthy 5.2 percent, it has been fueled largely by domestic demand, which in turn has been fueled by government expenditure and handouts. Malaysia has a Wawasan 2020 (Vision 2020) introduced by Mahathir by which time the country is expected to reach industrialized status. Razak, who is also the Finance Minister, remains confident that with " a little bit of hard work", the ruling party the National Front will be able to obtain the coveted two-thirds majority. He has even predicted that the ruling party will secure between 140 to 155 parliamentary seats. He has been wooing the youth vote especially on the social media in particular offering them 'a future full of hope' under a BN government. The reason is implicit – over 2.3 million or 18 percent of the electorate are newly-registered voters. "There is no reason for youths to feel neglected, for the government has opened up to make the democratic process more open and liberal. Believe me, the government of the day is a government for young people," said Najib at a rally in Kuala Lumpur.
