RIYADH — In light of global and local developments, including geopolitical risks that may impact the world economy, Saudi Arabia has crafted three revenue scenarios for the year 2024. These scenarios, detailed in the preliminary budget statement, include the baseline scenario, which forms the foundation for revenue estimations, and two alternative scenarios building upon the baseline. The baseline scenario, a reflection of global and local developments, projects revenues at SR1.17 trillion, offset by expenditures reaching SR1.25 trillion. Consequently, a deficit of approximately SR79 billion is anticipated for the fiscal year 2024. The successful implementation of structural reforms and initiatives in recent years has played a pivotal role in fostering non-oil revenues, positioning them as a crucial and sustainable source for funding major developmental projects and social expenditures. The second scenario takes a more conservative approach, estimating revenues at approximately SR1.15 trillion, with expenditures mirroring the baseline at SR1.25 trillion, resulting in a deficit of SR102 billion. In a notable and optimistic development, the highest scenario envisions revenues soaring to SR1.48 trillion, while expenditures remain consistent at around SR1.25 trillion. This bullish scenario paints a surplus picture, with an impressive SR234 billion. Crucially, the Ministry of Finance has maintained expenditure levels at SR1.25 trillion across all three scenarios, underscoring the government's steadfast commitment to progressing with large-scale projects as planned. Saudi Arabia persists in its commitment to economic diversification and fiscal reforms, as outlined in the preliminary statement for the 2024 budget. The government's ongoing efforts focus on implementing initiatives to bolster the economy and increase non-oil revenues, ensuring their sustained growth in the medium and long term.
