In light of the rapidly spreading disease named as COVID-19, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) actively monitors its economic impacts on civil aviation and regularly publishes updated reports and adjusted forecasts. ICAO is working alongside the Airport Council International (ACI) in monitoring the developments and to leverage their expertise and analysis conducted on the economic impacts of COVID-19 on airports. Analysis of economic impacts of COVID-19 - Global and State-level: When assessing the economic impacts on civil aviation, ICAO works with many different scenarios in order to reflect the very uncertain nature of the current situation and the rapidly changing environment. In order to explore the potential economic implication of the COVID-19 pandemic for the near future, the full report is built around 6 different recovery paths under two indicative scenarios. The actual path will eventually depend upon various factors, inter alia, duration and magnitude of the outbreak and containment measures, availability of government assistance, consumers' confidence and economic conditions. 1. Baseline: hypothetical situation without COVID-19 outbreak with forecasts as originally planned; 2. Indicative Scenario 1 - "V-Shaped": Follows the normal shape for recession where a brief period of contraction is followed by quick/smooth recovery — most optimistic path indicated with a; 3. Indicative Scenario 2 - "U-Shaped": Indicates prolonged contraction and muted recovery with a possibility of no return to trend line of growth (L-shaped) — most pessimistic path indicated with a; The analytical focus, in the current report, is on the near-term with monthly profiles from Jan to Dec 2020 and on international traffic only. Scenarios 1 and 2 are not forecasts of what is likely to happen, but merely indicators of possible paths or consequential outcomes out of many. Each scenario considers 3 different paths to take into account differentiated terms of supply (output) and demand (spending). Impacts of COVID-19 across industries The COVID-19 virus has spread worldwide without acknowledging borders. It has impacted all industries, all sectors and all aspects of our lives with devastating economic and financial losses and significant uncertainties. Within the spirit of collaboration, the chart gathers information from international organizations representing the impacted industries. This information is subject to frequent change and you are invited to visit the official website of each organization for most up-to-date figures. Figures are sourced from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the Airports Council International (ACI), the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). All figures are in comparison to 2019 data, except for airport revenue figures which are compared to 2020 baseline. — SG
