Although Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar has threatened the Libyan capital before, the current military advance to take over Tripoli is a major assault that could easily blow up into a fresh military confrontation. Despite all of Libya's instability since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has not seen a move as potentially explosive as this in years. While there have often been questions about whether Haftar has the military forces to seize the capital, because he commands the Libya National Army which controls two-thirds of Libya, he stands a chance of realizing his objective while at the same time raising fears of a major showdown with rival militias. Libya has long been ripe for chaos. Even though the two main parties to the conflict are Haftar and the internationally recognized government of Libyan Prime Minister Fayez Al-Sarraj - who has been trying to win the support of the various militias and politicians but has little real power over the whole country - only Libya's myriad armed militias really wield power. During the uprising, up to 1,700 armed groups emerged. The gun became the law. In the process, Libya transformed into a regional incubator for jihadist groups. Due to the fragility of the post-revolutionary interim authority and its inability to disarm the militias, develop new and efficient military and security agencies, and establish control over all parts of the country, militant jihadist groups proliferated, especially in eastern Libya. These were made up primarily of the second generation of Libyan jihadists who refused to engage in the post-revolutionary political process. Libya is also hugely ideologically divided. Some actors are militant or moderate Islamists, others are secessionists or monarchists and yet others are liberals. Militias are split along regional, ethnic and local lines, making it a combustible mix. And after more than four decades of authoritarian rule, they have little understanding of democracy, making them unable to forge compromises and build a new state based on the rule of law. Who has an interest in maintaining the ongoing division in Libya between east and west? Many are outside forces supporting political Islamic groups and terrorist organizations in Libya and Syria, claiming a delusional regional influence that's not welcome by the vast majority of the peoples of those countries. Rather than safeguarding the interests of the Libyan people, outside parties are seeking to serve their own ideological agendas. UN Secretary-General António Guterres was just in Libya to try to drum up support for a national reconciliation conference that is supposed to lead to elections by the end of the year which would produce a government enjoying the support of the majority of Libyans. Haftar has so far refused to attend the conference. The rejection dates back to parliamentary elections held in 2014 that were disputed. Those who held power refused to give it up and remained in Tripoli. This parliament still has the official backing of the UN as Libya's official legislative body. It wants Haftar, who is leading the battle against Islamist militias, to keep a senior role in a future army, something the UN agreement does not guarantee. Libya needs a strong government with the backing of a strong army. That's why some feel that it would be a good idea to enable the Libya National Army to fight terrorist organizations that have turned some Libyan cities into safe havens and a possible Islamic state in Libya. Former US President Barack Obama has said that the "worst mistake" of his presidency was the failure to prepare for the aftermath of Gaddafi's overthrow, resulting in instability which is threatening its neighbors and was a factor in Europe's migrant crisis. Obama's failed policy deprived Libyans of a peaceful life, one that maintains the unity and territorial integrity of their country. Now they are in desperate need of some stability.
