For the first time, the US administration has given some sort of date when its long-awaited Palestinian-Israeli peace plan will roll out – or actually when it will not. At the recent Middle East security conference in Warsaw, Jared Kushner, senior White House adviser, son-in-law of US President Donald Trump and part architect of the deal, reportedly confirmed behind closed doors that the administration will not release its peace plan prior to Israel's elections in April. That Kushner would rather sit on the deal until after the elections is to Benjamin Netanyahu's advantage. Although he will probably win, as he almost always does, Netanyahu will be carrying heavy baggage, including the possibility of being indicted on corruption charges, which may make it hard for him to assemble a coalition. But if the administration puts forward a peace plan after the election, various Israeli political parties might want to join the coalition to be part of the process. As for what's in the deal, the administration has been so tight-lipped that not even its closest allies really know what it includes. Thus, the allies will learn about the substance of the plan so late that it would be too late to weigh in with changes. That does not bode well for the Palestinians. If the plan had any good news for them, surely it would have come out by now. Trump has said Israel will have to "pay a price" for peace although he has not specified what that would be. What has been roughly ascertained is that the Palestinians are likely to be offered provisional borders over fragments of land comprising about half the occupied territories – or just 11 percent of what was recognized as Palestine under the British mandate. The Palestinian areas would be demilitarized, and Israel would have control over the borders and airspace. Israel will then continue with what it has been doing: expanding illegal settlements. It is widely assumed that the Americans have rejected any principle of a right of return for Palestinian refugees, either to Israel or to the areas of the occupied territories. And now that Jerusalem is, according to the administration, Israel's exclusive capital, the future Palestinian "capital" will be Abu Dis, a densely populated village of 13,000 Palestinians which cannot meaningfully act as the capital of a Palestinian state. One by one, the US forced the Palestinian hand, declaring Jerusalem as Israel's capital, drastically slashing humanitarian aid to the Palestinians, shuttering Palestinian diplomatic offices in Washington, and closing its own consulate that serves the occupied West Bank and Gaza. Trump said he had to force the Palestinians to reach an agreement by weakening their hand through aid cuts and referred to Jerusalem as a "bargaining chip" taken away from the Palestinians. There is suspicion that the US is trying to buy Palestinian compliance with an unfair deal in exchange for money. The three main architects – Kushner, team leader Jason Greenblatt and US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, not to mention Trump himself – all come from a business background and their position has been to treat the conflict like a business deal. But Palestinians and their cause cannot be bought to convince them to drop their legitimate political rights. Palestinians are presented with two options: accepting a plan drafted by a very Israeli-friendly US administration and which has been the least receptive to their cause since peace efforts began, or continuing to live under occupation. It is difficult to escape a further sense of hopelessness about the prospect of a fair deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians. It is difficult to find an abundance of care about the Palestinian people. Palestinians must prepare for the worst.
