Russia on Tuesday formally recognized the Georgian rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states in a new challenge which angered the Western powers. President Dmitry Medvedev's declaration prompted bursts of celebratory gunfire in the streets of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. “We're not afraid of anything,” Medvedev declared when asked on television if he feared the stand-off would lead to a new Cold War. Russia condemned a build-up of NATO ships in the Black Sea, said by the West to be delivering aid and conducting previously arranged exercises. Medvedev said in a televised address he had signed a decree recognizing South Ossetia – the catalyst for this month's five-day military conflict with Georgia – and Abkhazia. “Russia calls on other states to follow its example,” he said, insisting that the move was in line with the UN charter and international law. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov played down Western opposition to the recognition. “I don't think we should really be afraid of isolation.... I don't think that we are in for any freezing of relations if all sides are guided by the interests of their countries,” he said. Western military intervention in support of Georgia has never been an option. The West's ability to punish Russia is limited. UN sanctions against Russia are out of the question – Russia has a veto in the Security Council. Any Western action might make Russia withdraw its help with UN sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program and Moscow's transit support for NATO forces in Afghanistan. Retaliation could involve excluding Russia from the G8 top industrial democracies. Moscow has already indicated that it is not interested in pursuing WTO membership at present. EU action could run from sending in peacekeepers to diplomatic moves such as breaking off talks with Russia over a wide-ranging strategic partnership, or even economic sanctions such as curbing existing trade arrangements. NATO has already suspended activities with Russia.
