Syria's Assad regime has from early in the rebellion against its rule enjoyed financial and logistical support from Iran. Indeed the Free Syria Army's capture of Iranian Revolutionary Guards last year, all of them according to Tehran former members of the elite body on a pilgrimage, demonstrated that this support goes far further than money, oil and weaponry to the supply of manpower and intelligence. What was less clear, however, was the position of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia which so decisively defeated the Israelis in 2006 and now dominates the south of the country. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah admitted last October that some of his militiamen had volunteered to fight alongside Assad's forces but he always denied that there had been any formal involvement. Now, with the attack this week on three rebel-held Syrian villages by Hezbollah using heavy artillery and mortars, it seems that the mask has been drawn aside. Hezbollah forces crossed into Syria from Lebanon and mounted the operations against these border villages in the Qusayr region of Homs province in a joint operation with Assad's army. This is a dangerous escalation in Hezbollah's involvement in the fate of the Syrian dictatorship. For a start, it is most unlikely to do anything in the long-term to stop the inexorable decline of the regime and its military which is losing steadily more ground and bases to the forces of the Free Syria Army. It is hard to see what Hezbollah commanders imagine they could possibly achieve by way of propping up Assad. Moreover, in taking on the rebels, they are fighting a people every bit as motivated and dedicated as was Hezbollah itself when it confronted the Israelis 13 years ago. However, the danger is more far-reaching than this ill-advised meddling in Syria on the side of a doomed regime. It is the impact on Lebanon that could be the greatest and most disastrous. Hezbollah always said it was acting on behalf of the wider Lebanon and thus claimed its place in the country's leadership. There was talk, but only talk, as it turned out that Hezbollah forces would at some point be incorporated into the Lebanese military. Nasrallah and his fellow leaders in the organization all protested that it was the territorial integrity and unity of Lebanon that they were fighting to protect. Yet by intervening openly on behalf of Assad in Syria, Hezbollah has raised tensions with other communities inside Lebanon and, in the view of many, put itself on a collision path with the rest of the country.
It beggars belief that anyone could seriously contemplate returning Lebanon to the bitter internecine conflict that disfigured and pretty well destroyed the country over more than 16 years. Yet that is surely the likely consequence of Nasrallah's insistence on helping out his old friend and ally, Bashar Assad. The reality is that there is nothing that Hezbollah, nor indeed units of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, can do to stave off the downfall of the Assad regime and the end to its bloody attempt to crush its own people. Yet in this forlorn attempt to interfere, Hezbollah could plunge Lebanon back into conflict which will lead nowhere, cost thousands more lives and bring comfort to no one, except the Israelis, who will welcome renewed chaos on their northern border.
