TOKYO/SHANGHAI — Two Japanese F-15s scramble as a Chinese plane nears the disputed islands: one in the lead, the other providing cover. They issue radio warnings to leave the area, but are ignored. Visual wing-tipping signals go unheeded. The Japanese pilots consider their last option: firing warning shots - a step Beijing could consider an act of war. That's how the risky game being played near a chain of rocky, uninhabited isles at the heart of a row between Beijing and Tokyo could quickly escalate to the danger point, a former Japanese air force pilot said. A long-simmering row over the islands, known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China, has in recent months escalated to the point where both have scrambled fighter jets while patrol ships shadow each other in nearby seas. "Most likely the two sides will eventually find a face-saving formula to step back from this. But I doubt it's a flash in the pan," said Andy Gilholm of consultancy Control Risks. A string of Japanese politicians including Abe's junior coalition partner and former Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama have visited Beijing in recent weeks. "These (visits) are being reported in China in an explicit way," said Yoshihide Soeya, director of the Institute of East Asian Studies at Keio University in Tokyo. "China is telling its domestic audience that it is time to try something new." Abe, who returned to Japan's top job in December after his Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) huge election win, now says he is open to a summit. LDP Vice President Masahiko Komura may travel to China to try to lay the groundwork, although no meeting is expected until after Xi becomes president in March. Abe's predecessor bought the islands, located near potentially big maritime gas reserves, last September to prevent their purchase by the nationalist governor of Tokyo. Beijing rejected Japan's explanation that the move was meant to avoid escalating tensions, and violent protests erupted in China. Even if the leaders meet, a substantive compromise in which Beijing stops sending ships and planes to the area or Tokyo agrees that the island's sovereignty is disputed looks elusive. The row over the islands has caused flare-ups with serious economic fallout in years past, but China's stepped up efforts to physically challenge Japan's control — and Japan's decision to push back — has raised the risk to a new level, diplomats say. Japanese fighters scrambled 160 times between April and October last year, the latest period for which data is available, more than the total in the 12 months to March 2012, and at least eight times since Dec. 13 when a Chinese turbo-prop plane entered what Japan considers its airspace. Another elevated risk is a possible collision between Japanese and Chinese patrol vessels in the area or a boat of Chinese activists that tries to land on one of the islands. "At least there are efforts to manage the situation," said former Japanese diplomat Hitoshi Tanaka, head of the Institute for International Strategy in Tokyo. "But the danger remains." — Reuters
