GROWING financial pressure from Western donors on Mauritania's new military rulers is unlikely to reverse their coup as the junta digs in and gains recognition from parts of the region. General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz's Aug. 6 overthrow of the northwest African country's first freely elected leader prompted broad international condemnation, but he has remained defiant. “There is no chance of the coup being reversed,” said David Hartwell, Middle East and North Africa Editor for Janes Country Risk in London. “If it was (going to be reversed), it would have happened in the hours and days afterwards. The coup seems to have become entrenched pretty well,” he said. In recent days, Washington and the European Union have cranked up threats to cut hundreds of millions of dollars of aid and over $110 million a year from an EU fisheries deal if President Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi is not freed and restored to power. The World Bank has put loans to Mauritania on hold, a Bank official said on Tuesday, and the U.N. Security Council has condemned the coup and demanded President Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi's release and restoration to power. The coup ended barely 15 months of civilian rule after a 2005 coup led to a two-year military transition in the largely desert country that recently became an oil producer. “The coup is showing it's really the military that pulls the strings in Mauritania. The institutions are too weak to show the military is subordinate to the government,” said Kissy Agyeman, Africa analyst at Global Insight in London. “The military has had such a big role in Mauritania historically, and that is hard now to reverse,” she said. Same old story? For some, a coup in Mauritania is business as usual. Africa's last successful coup was staged here in 2005. Then, coup leaders, who included Abdel Aziz, soon promised free elections they would not contest. Abdallahi's election as the northwest African country's first freely elected leader was hailed in Africa and beyond as a model democratic transition. Abdel Aziz has promised free elections “as soon as possible” but has yet to put any timeframe on it. Worse still for Western diplomats, he has said he may stand for president himself. The African Union suspended Mauritania soon after the coup, but pro-coup parliamentarian Mohamed Ould Babana told Reuters Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi had agreed to intercede with African governments on behalf of the coup makers. Several nearby countries have since shown willingness to deal with the junta, perhaps encouraged by public shows of support within Mauritania, where it has the backing of a majority of members of parliament. “Pressure on the media has mounted ... We believe the actions of the parliamentarians are under pressure,” a U.S. State Department official told Reuters. However, an Arab League envoy came away from Mauritania last week saying that it seemed as if there had been no coup at all. “I think one can be brutally honest about this and say the view perhaps amongst many of the African Union is that it's Mauritania and it's another coup,” Hartwell said. “It's harsh, but Mauritania doesn't have much diplomatic weight, and doesn't offer, till the oil starts coming through, much to the African continent. Coups in Mauritania are not that uncommon ... They are just being pragmatic and realistic.” Mauritania started pumping crude oil from an offshore well in 2006, but production fell off sharply and remains low. Abdel Aziz has sent delegations to key African and Arab countries, hoping to secure backing for the ruling High State Council he has set up, whilst also cementing power at home. The National Assembly was due to sit on Wednesday in its first session since the coup. Lawmakers said they may appoint judges to a senior court which could investigate allegations of mismanagement at Abdallahi's wife's charitable foundation. Legal action against Abdallahi's unpopular wife, who many political opponents accuse of having undue influence in his administration, could weaken the position of the ousted president. He has been detained, incommunicado, for two weeks. The State Department official said Abdallahi's release was the primary U.S. objective, and Washington would continue to insist he was returned to power and reject fresh elections. Mauritania has backed U.S. counterterrorism in the Sahara and Abdel Aziz said last week he would crack down on Al-Qaeda militants who have launched several attacks in the past year. But military aid has been cut, programmes are being reviewed and diplomats say the coup leaders can expect no favours. – Reuters __
